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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Independiente - San Lorenzo

09/13/2026, 10:15 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Independiente
1.2
Total xG
1.9
San Lorenzo
0.7
最可能的比分

0:0

17%

1:0

17%

1:1

14%

2:0

11%

0:1

9%
xG 分解
INDSL

Independiente

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.16
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.10
Gabriel Ávalos未进大名单 (11球, 5助攻)
Santiago Arias替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
14%进球产出缺失 (仅76%可用)

San Lorenzo

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.66倍)
-0.37
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.17
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1 赛季平均)
-0.14
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1球)
全员可用

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.40
-0.40
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

34%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

66%

双方进球

36%

64%

关键因素
  • Mathematical advantage: The model prediction favors Independiente with a 46% win probability
  • Defensive wall: San Lorenzo concedes only 0.84 goals per match on average this season
  • Possession dominance: Independiente recently controlled matches with an average of 56% possession
风险因素
  • Struggling offenses: Goal production is stalling for both teams (recently 1.0 for Independiente, 0.5 for San Lorenzo)
  • Historically low-scoring: The stadium's historical scoring average is only 1.8 goals per match
  • Low scoring probability: The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at only 28%
概述

Independiente (5th place, 24 points) host San Lorenzo (7th place, 22 points)

Match on September 13, 2026, 11:15 PM at the Estadio Libertadores de América

Crucial clash in the upper half of the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

近期状态

Both teams show an identical recent form trend

Last 5 games: LWDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Both sides recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 outings

统计数据

Independiente scores 1.28 goals and concedes 1.16 goals per match on average

San Lorenzo is defensively stronger with 0.84 conceded goals per game but scores only 0.76 on average

On the road, San Lorenzo concedes exactly 1.00 goal per game

Independiente kept 5 clean sheets in 12 home matches this season

历史交锋

A total of 4 direct duels in recent history

Independiente recorded 2 wins and 2 draws

San Lorenzo is winless in these encounters, with a goal difference of 5:3 in favor of Independiente

The last direct meeting ended in a 2:1 victory

关键球员

Independiente relies on Matías Abaldo (5 goals, 2 assists), Santiago Montiel (3 goals, 3 assists), and Lautaro Millán (3 goals)

San Lorenzo features Rodrigo Auzmendi (6 goals), Alexis Cuello (5 goals, 3 assists), and defender Danilo Arboleda (7.31 rating)

Not nominated: Gabriel Ávalos (11G/5A), Santiago Arias (0G/2A)

门将

Rodrigo Rey starts for Independiente (average rating of 6.81, 8 clean sheets)

José Devecchi starts in goal for San Lorenzo (average rating of 6.84, team has 13 clean sheets)

影响因素

The game will be played on grass at the Estadio Libertadores de América

The venue history shows a low scoring rate of 1.8 goals per match on average

Both teams scored in only 20% of previous matches at this stadium

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