Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Independiente - San Lorenzo
09/13/2026, 10:15 PM
预期进球
1.2
1.9
0.7
0:0
17%1:0
17%1:1
14%2:0
11%0:1
9%xG 分解
Independiente
San Lorenzo
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
46%
平局
34%
客胜
20%
进球数
Over 1.5
57%
Under 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
28%
Under 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
双重机会
主胜或平局
80%
客胜或平局
54%
非平局
66%
双方进球
是
36%
否
64%
关键因素
- Mathematical advantage: The model prediction favors Independiente with a 46% win probability
- Defensive wall: San Lorenzo concedes only 0.84 goals per match on average this season
- Possession dominance: Independiente recently controlled matches with an average of 56% possession
风险因素
- Struggling offenses: Goal production is stalling for both teams (recently 1.0 for Independiente, 0.5 for San Lorenzo)
- Historically low-scoring: The stadium's historical scoring average is only 1.8 goals per match
- Low scoring probability: The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at only 28%
概述
Independiente (5th place, 24 points) host San Lorenzo (7th place, 22 points)
Match on September 13, 2026, 11:15 PM at the Estadio Libertadores de América
Crucial clash in the upper half of the Liga Profesional de Fútbol
近期状态
Both teams show an identical recent form trend
Last 5 games: LWDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Both sides recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 outings
统计数据
Independiente scores 1.28 goals and concedes 1.16 goals per match on average
San Lorenzo is defensively stronger with 0.84 conceded goals per game but scores only 0.76 on average
On the road, San Lorenzo concedes exactly 1.00 goal per game
Independiente kept 5 clean sheets in 12 home matches this season
历史交锋
A total of 4 direct duels in recent history
Independiente recorded 2 wins and 2 draws
San Lorenzo is winless in these encounters, with a goal difference of 5:3 in favor of Independiente
The last direct meeting ended in a 2:1 victory
关键球员
Independiente relies on Matías Abaldo (5 goals, 2 assists), Santiago Montiel (3 goals, 3 assists), and Lautaro Millán (3 goals)
San Lorenzo features Rodrigo Auzmendi (6 goals), Alexis Cuello (5 goals, 3 assists), and defender Danilo Arboleda (7.31 rating)
Not nominated: Gabriel Ávalos (11G/5A), Santiago Arias (0G/2A)
门将
Rodrigo Rey starts for Independiente (average rating of 6.81, 8 clean sheets)
José Devecchi starts in goal for San Lorenzo (average rating of 6.84, team has 13 clean sheets)
影响因素
The game will be played on grass at the Estadio Libertadores de América
The venue history shows a low scoring rate of 1.8 goals per match on average
Both teams scored in only 20% of previous matches at this stadium