比赛报告 →
Unión Santa Fe – Defensa y Justicia0 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Unión Santa Fe
1.29
总 xG
2.34
Defensa y Justicia
1.06
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Unión Santa Fe | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| 低进球联赛 (场均2.2球) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.34倍) | +0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球) | +0.06 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.05 | |
| Julián Palacios替补席 (3球, 8助攻) | ||
| Marcelo Estigarribia替补席 (5球, 2助攻) | ||
| Brahian David Cuello替补席 (4球, 1助攻) | ||
| Lucas Menossi未进大名单 (4球, 1助攻) | ||
| 28%进球产出缺失 (仅64%可用) | ||
| A. Molinas未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻) | ||
| 11%进球产出缺失 (仅82%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Form discrepancy: While Defensa y Justicia has been stable (3 wins in 5 games), Unión Santa Fe suffered three consecutive defeats
- Home defensive strength: Unión Santa Fe concedes an average of only 0.87 goals in front of their home crowd
- Tarragona's scoring form: Attacker Cristian Tarragona scored 5 goals in his last 5 matches
风险
- Severe squad depletion: Julián Palacios, Marcelo Estigarribia, Brahian David Cuello, and Lucas Menossi are missing, leaving only 64% of the goal threat available
- Creative loss: Midfielder A. Molinas is out injured for Defensa y Justicia, missing his contribution of 3 goals and 4 assists this season
全部概率
赛果
Unión Santa Fe40%
平局31%
Defensa y Justicia29%
进球
大于 1.570%
小于 1.530%
大于 2.542%
小于 2.558%
大于 3.521%
小于 3.579%
双重机会
Unión Santa Fe或平局71%
Defensa y Justicia或平局60%
非平局69%
双方均进球
是49%
否51%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
11%
0:1
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Unión Santa Fe 4-4-2 · Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 27 T. Rubio
- 4 M. Rocha Calderón
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 25 C. Tarragona
- 43 E. Ramírez
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 26 J. Lucco
- 19 D. Barbona
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
替补
- 23 A. Solari
- 20 J. Palacios
- 22 B. Cuello
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 12 B. Pittón
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 36 M. Aimar
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 33 I. Isla
- 20 J. Palavecino
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 36 L. Amade
- 17 A. Hausch
- 16 A. Portillo
- 32 N. Roselli
- 5 J. López
- 7 T. Pérez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 27 D. Blanco
- 40 M. Rodríguez
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
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