比赛报告 →
Rosario Central – Independiente Rivadavia5 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Rosario Central
1.01
总 xG
1.82
Independiente Rivadavia
0.81
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Rosario Central | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| 低进球联赛 (场均2.2球) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1球) | +0.29 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球) | −0.17 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.11 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | −0.11 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均2球) | +0.06 | |
| Fabrizio Sartori替补席 (8球, 0助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.8球) |
关键因素
- Tactical strength: Independiente Rivadavia averaged 7.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Form trend: Independiente Rivadavia won 3 of their last 5 matches and currently average 2.0 goals per game, higher than their season average
- Pipeline prediction: The model calculates a 38% home win probability with 1.01 to 0.81 expected goals
风险
- Away defensive weakness: Independiente Rivadavia concede an average of 1.50 goals per away match
- Squad absences: R. Macagno (Muscle Tear) and M. Salas (Cruciate Ligament Injury) are unavailable for Independiente Rivadavia
全部概率
赛果
Rosario Central38%
平局36%
Independiente Rivadavia27%
进球
大于 1.556%
小于 1.544%
大于 2.527%
小于 2.573%
大于 3.511%
小于 3.589%
双重机会
Rosario Central或平局73%
Independiente Rivadavia或平局62%
非平局64%
双方均进球
是37%
否63%
最可能的比分
0:0
18%
1:1
15%
1:0
15%
0:1
11%
2:0
8%
5:0
最终比分
首发阵容
Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 · Independiente Rivadavia 4-2-3-1
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 31 F. Navarro
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 8 J. Campaz
- 22 E. Copetti
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 14 L. Gómez
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 42 S. Studer
- 3 J. Elordi
- 5 T. Bottari
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 11 G. Ríos
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 10 M. Fernández
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
替补
- 10 F. Cervi
- 33 A. Soto
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 9 M. Ruben Rodríguez
- 18 J. Fernández
- 38 D. Fernandez
- 24 J. Giménez
- 6 J. Komar
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 42 E. Verón
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 2 S. Zaracho
- 13 A. Osella
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 19 R. Atencio
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
- 7 V. Ramis
- 8 L. Bucca
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 28 A. Vigo
- 80 M. Reali
- 23 L. Díaz
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