比赛报告 →
Lanús – Vélez Sarsfield2 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Lanús
1.33
总 xG
2.19
Vélez Sarsfield
0.86
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Lanús | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| 低进球联赛 (场均2.2球) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | +0.07 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | −0.03 | |
| Felipe Peña Biafore替补席 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| Matías Pellegrini未进大名单 (3球, 5助攻) | ||
| Manuel Lanzini未进大名单 (6球, 0助攻) | ||
| 25%进球产出缺失 (仅80%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Home advantage signal: Model calculations indicate a 46% home win chance for Lanús with 1.33 expected goals
- Rising attack trend: Lanús are currently scoring more frequently (1.5) than their seasonal average (1.3)
- Tactical metric: Vélez Sarsfield averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
风险
- Key player absences: Matías Pellegrini and Manuel Lanzini are missing from the Vélez Sarsfield starting lineup
- Low goal expectation: The model estimates only a 38% probability for over 2.5 total goals
全部概率
赛果
Lanús46%
平局32%
Vélez Sarsfield23%
进球
大于 1.566%
小于 1.534%
大于 2.537%
小于 2.563%
大于 3.518%
小于 3.582%
双重机会
Lanús或平局77%
Vélez Sarsfield或平局54%
非平局69%
双方均进球
是44%
否56%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
首发阵容
Lanús 4-2-3-1 · Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 17 D. Medina
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 10 D. Moreno
- 11 E. Salvio
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 35 M. Arias
- 37 J. Policella
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
替补
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 23 R. Carrera
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 8 F. Watson
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 15 R. Loaiza Morelos
- 38 B. Acosta
- 42 G. Lobos
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
- 21 J. Gordon
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 30 L. Piola
- 46 U. Piedrabuena
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