比赛报告 →
Platense – Argentinos Juniors1 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Platense
0.75
总 xG
1.66
Argentinos Juniors
0.91
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Platense | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.64倍) | −0.59 | |
| 低进球联赛 (场均2.2球) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍) | −0.18 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.11 | |
| 排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第3位, 相差9位) | −0.07 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.04 | |
| 排名优势 (第3位 vs 第12位, 相差9位) | +0.04 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1球) | −0.03 | |
| Hernán López Muñoz替补席 (4球, 3助攻) | ||
| 18%进球产出缺失 (仅79%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Table gap: Argentinos Juniors (3rd place, 29 points) face Platense (12th place, 16 points), model calculates a draw at 38% and away win at 36%
- Tactical dominance: Argentinos Juniors averaged 60% possession and 4.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Low goal expectation: Model projects 0.75 expected home goals and 0.91 away goals with only 23% probability for over 2.5 goals
风险
- Squad constraint: Hernán López Muñoz is missing from the starting lineup for Argentinos Juniors, leaving 79% of normal goal threat available
- Away defensive concern: Argentinos Juniors concede an average of 1.50 goals per away match
- Vulnerable home defense: Platense concede an average of 1.70 goals per match at home
全部概率
赛果
Platense27%
平局38%
Argentinos Juniors36%
进球
大于 1.551%
小于 1.549%
大于 2.523%
小于 2.577%
大于 3.59%
小于 3.591%
双重机会
Platense或平局64%
Argentinos Juniors或平局73%
非平局62%
双方均进球
是33%
否67%
最可能的比分
0:0
21%
0:1
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
13%
0:2
8%
首发阵容
Platense 4-2-3-1 · Argentinos Juniors 4-3-3
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 4 A. Lagos
- 34 M. Mendia
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 3 T. Silva
- 15 F. Amarfil
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 7 G. Mainero
- 18 B. Merlini
- 43 N. Retamar
- 79 B. Sepúlveda
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 17 F. Paredes
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 6 F. Vázquez
- 20 S. Prieto
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 7 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 27 T. Molina
- 9 G. Verón
替补
- 33 J. Gauto
- 22 N. Sumavil
- 17 F. Bussio
- 21 A. Lotti
- 99 G. Lencina
- 29 F. Minerva
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 5 I. Gómez
- 6 E. Raggio
- 8 F. López
- 16 G. Togni
- 11 N. López Alonso
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
- 12 G. Siri Payer
- 32 G. Infantino
- 10 C. Florentín
- 26 C. Bravo
- 8 H. López Muñoz
- 4 E. Godoy
- 18 F. Mancuello
- 35 A. Alcaraz
- 23 M. Mendoza
准备开始了吗？
创建账户，探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。
创建账户 →