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Serie A

Bahia - Chapecoense

07/17/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Bahia
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Chapecoense
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
BAHCHA

Bahia

排名优势 (第6位 vs 第20位, 相差14位)
+0.11
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.08
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.04
Luciano Juba替补席 (7球, 1助攻)
Jean Lucas替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Everton Ribeiro  替补席 (0球, 4助攻)
46%进球产出缺失 (仅46%可用)

Chapecoense

防守不足 (场均失2.1球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.96
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.59倍)
-0.34
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.17
排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第6位, 相差14位)
-0.13
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.02
Carvalheira未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
31%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.1球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

58%

平局

27%

客胜

16%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

84%

客胜或平局

42%

非平局

73%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • Only 46% of goal threat available, without Luciano Juba, Jean Lucas, Everton Ribeiro
  • Bahia recently dominated possession with an average of 58% and 5.4 shots on target
  • Clear table advantage: Sixth-placed Bahia hosts bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense
风险因素
  • Chapecoense concedes an extremely high average of 3.25 goals per away game
  • Limited data available for head-to-head history
概述

Bahia hosts Chapecoense at the Arena Fonte Nova

Serie A match on July 18, 2026, 12:30 AM

Bahia sits in 6th place with 26 points, while Chapecoense is bottom of the table in 20th place with 9 points

The mathematical model favors Bahia with a 58% win probability

近期状态

Bahia has a mixed form of DLDLW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Chapecoense is winless in 5 matches with a form of LDLLL and 3 consecutive losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Bahia scores an average of 1.47 goals per game and concedes 1.35

Chapecoense scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.94

Chapecoense's away defense is particularly weak, conceding an average of 3.25 goals per game

Matches at the Arena Fonte Nova have seen an average of 3.0 goals recently

关键球员

For Bahia, Willian José starts in attack, having scored 3 goals this season

Midfielder Erick has scored 2 goals and recently impressed with an average rating of 7.02

Erick Pulga starts on the wing and has provided 1 assist so far

门将

Ronaldo has played 8 matches for Bahia this season with an average rating of 7.07, helping the team secure 4 clean sheets

Matheus is in the squad for Chapecoense without any appearances this season, with the team holding only 1 clean sheet overall

影响因素

Bahia is stronger at home, scoring 14 goals in 10 home matches

All of the last 5 matches at the Arena Fonte Nova ended with both teams scoring

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