Serie A
Bahia - Chapecoense
07/17/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.7
2.5
0.8
1:1
13%2:0
12%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
5%xG 分解
Bahia
Chapecoense
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
58%
平局
27%
客胜
16%
进球数
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
双重机会
主胜或平局
84%
客胜或平局
42%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
46%
否
54%
关键因素
- Only 46% of goal threat available, without Luciano Juba, Jean Lucas, Everton Ribeiro
- Bahia recently dominated possession with an average of 58% and 5.4 shots on target
- Clear table advantage: Sixth-placed Bahia hosts bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense
风险因素
- Chapecoense concedes an extremely high average of 3.25 goals per away game
- Limited data available for head-to-head history
概述
Bahia hosts Chapecoense at the Arena Fonte Nova
Serie A match on July 18, 2026, 12:30 AM
Bahia sits in 6th place with 26 points, while Chapecoense is bottom of the table in 20th place with 9 points
The mathematical model favors Bahia with a 58% win probability
近期状态
Bahia has a mixed form of DLDLW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
Chapecoense is winless in 5 matches with a form of LDLLL and 3 consecutive losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Bahia scores an average of 1.47 goals per game and concedes 1.35
Chapecoense scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.94
Chapecoense's away defense is particularly weak, conceding an average of 3.25 goals per game
Matches at the Arena Fonte Nova have seen an average of 3.0 goals recently
关键球员
For Bahia, Willian José starts in attack, having scored 3 goals this season
Midfielder Erick has scored 2 goals and recently impressed with an average rating of 7.02
Erick Pulga starts on the wing and has provided 1 assist so far
门将
Ronaldo has played 8 matches for Bahia this season with an average rating of 7.07, helping the team secure 4 clean sheets
Matheus is in the squad for Chapecoense without any appearances this season, with the team holding only 1 clean sheet overall
影响因素
Bahia is stronger at home, scoring 14 goals in 10 home matches
All of the last 5 matches at the Arena Fonte Nova ended with both teams scoring