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Serie A

Athletico PR - Botafogo

03/29/2026, 10:30 PM

4 : 1
预期进球
Athletico PR
1.8
Total xG
2.5
Botafogo
0.7
最可能的比分

2:0

13%

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
APBOT

Athletico PR

防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.54
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.52
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第18位, 相差12位)
+0.10
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.01
主场表现强势 (场均1.7球 vs 总体1.4球)

Botafogo

防守不足 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.93
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.73倍)
-0.67
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.39
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.14
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
-0.14
排名劣势 (第18位 vs 第6位, 相差12位)
-0.10
Danilo未进大名单 (5球, 1助攻)
51%进球产出缺失 (仅69%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.7球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

63%

平局

24%

客胜

12%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

88%

客胜或平局

37%

非平局

76%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • Strong Home Record: Athletico PR scores an average of 1.5 goals at home and concedes only 0.75 goals
  • Weak Away Defense: Botafogo concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
  • Mathematical Prediction: The analysis indicates a home win for Athletico PR with a 63% probability
风险因素
  • For Botafogo, Danilo is missing, only 69% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available
  • Botafogo averages only 2.8 shots on target per game
  • Botafogo concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
概述

Athletico PR (6th place, 13 points) host Botafogo (18th place, 6 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on March 29, 2026, 12:30 AM. Athletico PR are fighting for the top spots, while Botafogo are trying to move away from the relegation zone.

近期状态

Athletico PR's form across all competitions is LDLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games

Athletico PR won their last two matches consecutively

Botafogo's form across all competitions is LLLLW

They achieved 1 win and 4 losses in their last five fixtures

Botafogo recently secured a win

统计数据

Athletico PR scored an average of 1.43 goals per game and conceded 1 goal per game this season

At home, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 0.75 goals per home game

Athletico PR kept 2 clean sheets

Botafogo scored an average of 1.67 goals per game and conceded 2 goals per game this season

Away, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 2.25 goals per away game

Botafogo kept 1 clean sheet

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches across all competitions, Athletico PR has not registered a win

Botafogo won 1 match and 1 game ended in a draw

The goal difference is 1:2 in favor of Botafogo

The last encounter was won by Botafogo 0:1 on October 05, 2024

Botafogo has been the dominant team in recent meetings

关键球员

For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros (3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.91), Stiven Mendoza (3 goals, 0 assists, rating 6.90) and Julimar (2 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.73) are important attacking players

For Botafogo, Alexander Barboza (1 goal, 2 assists, rating 6.37), Arthur Cabral (1 goal, 1 assist, rating 7.04) and Alex Telles (1 goal, 0 assists, rating 6.52) stand out

门将

Athletico PR's goalkeeper Santos has 7 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.94

Athletico PR managed to keep 2 clean sheets

Botafogo's goalkeeper Raul has 3 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.96

Botafogo managed to keep 1 clean sheet

影响因素

Athletico PR appears stronger at home, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded per home game

Botafogo concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game

No data on stadium or weather-related influences is available

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