Serie A
Botafogo - Mirassol
04/01/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.1
2.3
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
10%1:0
10%1:2
8%xG 分解
Botafogo
Mirassol
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
34%
平局
32%
客胜
34%
进球数
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
双重机会
主胜或平局
66%
客胜或平局
66%
非平局
68%
双方进球
是
49%
否
51%
关键因素
- Critical squad gap for Botafogo: Only 33% of the usual starting XI goal threat available due to missing Danilo (5G/1A), Alexander Barboza (1G/2A), and Álvaro Montoro (0G/2A)
- Tactical disparity: Mirassol dominates possession (59% avg) and generates more shots on target (6.2 avg) compared to Botafogo (47% possession, 2.6 avg shots on target)
- Even prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a 34% win probability for both teams, indicating a very tight outcome
风险因素
- Botafogo had only 3 days of rest since the last match
- Mirassol concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Botafogo averaged 2.6 shots on target in recent matches
概述
Botafogo (19th place, 6 points) hosts Mirassol (17th place, 6 points) in a Serie A match on April 1, 2026, 12:30 AM. Both teams are in the lower regions of the table and are fighting for crucial points to escape the relegation zone. The mathematical analysis predicts a very close game, as the expected goals for both teams are almost identical, with 1.15 for Botafogo and 1.16 for Mirassol.
近期状态
Botafogo's form in the last five games across all competitions is LLLWL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses). Their last game ended in a loss. Mirassol shows a form of DDLLL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) in their last five games and also lost their last match. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
统计数据
Botafogo scores an average of 1.57 goals per game and concedes 2.29 goals per game. In 4 out of 7 games, both teams scored, and 6 games ended with over 2.5 goals. At home, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. Mirassol scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.43 goals per game. In 4 out of 7 games, both teams scored, and 4 games ended with over 2.5 goals. Away from home, Mirassol averages 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded.
历史交锋
In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, there were no wins for Botafogo or Mirassol, both games ended in a draw. The goal difference is even at 3:3. The last encounter on November 1, 2025, ended scoreless at 0:0.
关键球员
For Botafogo, Arthur Cabral (Attacker, 1 goal, 1 assist), Edenilson (Midfielder, 1 goal), and Alex Telles (Defender, 1 goal) could be crucial. Arthur Cabral shows a declining form, while Edenilson and Alex Telles maintain stable form. For Mirassol, Negueba (Attacker, 2 goals, rising form), Igor Formiga (Defender, 2 goals), and Alesson (Attacker, 2 assists) stand out. João Victor (Defender, 1 assist) and Shaylon (Midfielder, 1 assist) are other important players.
门将
In goal for Botafogo is Raul, who has recorded 1 clean sheet this season and has an average rating of 6.78. For Mirassol, Walter is in goal, with 0 clean sheets so far and an average rating of 6.83.
影响因素
Botafogo demonstrates home strength with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per home game. Mirassol, in turn, concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game. There is no data available on stadium history, surface records, or weather that could influence the match.