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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Vitória

04/01/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 0
预期进球
Cruzeiro
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Vitória
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
xG 分解
CRUVIT

Cruzeiro

防守实力 (场均失2.3球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
+0.72
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.58倍)
-0.61
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.31
排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第11位, 相差9位)
-0.11
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.04
Kaiki替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Néiser Villarreal替补席 (2球, 0助攻)

Vitória

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.49倍)
-0.64
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.44
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.04
排名优势 (第11位 vs 第20位, 相差9位)
+0.04
Renato Kayzer替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
26%进球产出缺失 (仅90%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体1.1球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

40%

平局

33%

客胜

27%

进球数

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

双重机会

主胜或平局

73%

客胜或平局

60%

非平局

67%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 40% for Cruzeiro
  • Vitória shows significant away weakness, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per away game
  • Historically, Cruzeiro dominates head-to-head matches with 2 wins and 0 losses in 4 games
风险因素
  • Cruzeiro will have a reduced starting eleven strength, with only 74% of usual goal threat available, as Kaiki and Néiser Villarreal are missing
  • Vitória averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Cruzeiro has not won any of their last 5 games, showing a form of DLDLD
概述

Cruzeiro (20th place, 4 points) hosts Vitória (11th place, 10 points) in Serie A on April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM. Cruzeiro is at the bottom of the table fighting for crucial points, while Vitória aims for a top-half finish

近期状态

Cruzeiro's form across all competitions is DLDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Their last match ended in a draw. Vitória shows a form of LDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match was a win

统计数据

Cruzeiro averages 1.0 goal scored per game and concedes 2.0 goals. At home, they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 of 8 matches. Vitória averages 1.14 goals scored per game and concedes 1.43 goals. Away, they average 1.0 goal scored and 4.0 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of 7 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 7 matches

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches between Cruzeiro and Vitória, Cruzeiro secured 2 wins and there were 2 draws. Vitória has not yet recorded a win. The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro won the last encounter 3:1 on November 1, 2025. Recent head-to-head encounters show dominance from Cruzeiro

关键球员

For Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira (Midfielder) stands out with a season average rating of 7.37 and 2 goals. Kaio Jorge (Attacker) shows a rising form with 2 goals in his last 5 games. Christian (Midfielder) scored 1 goal and has stable form. For Vitória, Baralhas (Midfielder) is a key player with 2 goals and 2 assists this season and 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games. Erick (Attacker) contributed with 1 goal and 2 assists this season, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 games. Matheuzinho (Midfielder) scored 1 goal this season and 1 goal in his last 5 games

门将

Cruzeiro's goalkeeper, Matheus Cunha, had an average rating of 6.4 in 4 appearances. He achieved 1 clean sheet. For Vitória, Lucas Arcanjo was in goal for 4 games and achieved an average rating of 7.06. He kept 3 clean sheets

影响因素

Cruzeiro averages 1.0 goal scored per home game and concedes 1.2 goals. Vitória shows a significant away weakness, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per away game

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