Serie A
Internacional - São Paulo
04/01/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.4
1.1
1:1
14%0:0
11%1:0
10%2:1
9%2:0
8%xG 分解
Internacional
São Paulo
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
42%
平局
30%
客胜
27%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
双重机会
主胜或平局
73%
客胜或平局
58%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
50%
否
50%
关键因素
- Internacional's squad is critically weakened, with only 50% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available, without Johan Carbonero (1G/1A) and Vitinho (0G/2A)
- São Paulo boasts a solid defense with an average of 0.63 goals conceded per game, but faces an Internacional that has improved offensively in recent matches (currently 1.0 goals per game)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 42% probability and 1.36 expected goals for Internacional
风险因素
- The historical record favors São Paulo, who won the last direct encounter 3-0 and are considered the recently dominant team
- São Paulo's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals on average in recent games compared to 1.3 season average) and they register only 3.6 shots on target on average
- Internacional shows a low seasonal goal output, with an average of 0.88 goals per game
概述
Internacional (12th place, 8 points) host São Paulo (3rd place, 16 points) in Serie A
The match takes place on April 1, 2026, 7:30 PM
São Paulo aims to maintain its position in the upper league table, while Internacional urgently needs points in midfield
近期状态
Internacional's form in their last 5 matches is DLLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Internacional's current form trend is positive with two consecutive wins
São Paulo's form in their last 5 matches is WWWLL
This corresponds to 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses
The away team's form is negative with two consecutive losses
According to advanced statistics, Internacional is currently scoring more frequently (1.0 goals) than their season average (0.9 goals)
São Paulo's goal production is stagnant (1.0 goals), while their season average is 1.3 goals
统计数据
Internacional has scored an average of 0.88 goals per game and conceded 1.13 goals per game this season
At home, they scored an average of 1 goal and conceded 1.67 goals
They kept 1 clean sheet in home games
São Paulo is stronger offensively with an average of 1.25 goals per game and a very stable defense of 0.63 goals conceded per game
Away from home, they scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded 1 goal per game
They kept 1 clean sheet in away games
This season, Internacional had 4 games where both teams scored and 2 games with over 2.5 goals
For São Paulo, both teams scored in 3 games, and 2 games had over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
In 4 head-to-head matches between Internacional and São Paulo, there has been 1 home win, 2 away wins, and 1 draw
Internacional scored 4 goals and São Paulo scored 6 goals
The last encounter on December 3, 2025, ended with a 3-0 victory for São Paulo
São Paulo has dominated recent meetings
关键球员
Key players for Internacional include: Alan Patrick, midfielder, with 2 goals in 7 season appearances and an average rating of 7.5
Gabriel Mercado, defender, scored 1 goal in 5 season appearances and shows a rising form trend
Alexandro Bernabei, defender, with a rising form trend and a season rating of 7.1 in 7 appearances
Key players for São Paulo include: Jonathan Calleri, attacker, with 4 goals in 8 season appearances
Luciano, attacker, with 2 goals and 1 assist in 7 season appearances
Sabino, defender, scored 1 goal in 7 season appearances and has a season rating of 7.15
门将
Internacional is expected to start with Anthoni in goal
The Internacional team recorded 1 clean sheet this season
For São Paulo, Rafael is expected to be in goal
São Paulo kept 3 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Internacional scored an average of 1 goal at home and conceded an average of 1.67 goals per home game
São Paulo scored an average of 1.33 goals away and conceded an average of 1 goal per away game