Palmeiras (1st place, 19 points) host Grêmio (9th place, 11 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 2, 2026, 9:30 PM. Palmeiras aims to defend its league leadership and extend the gap to its pursuers. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 58% probability.

Palmeiras' current form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is WLWWW, with 4 wins and 1 loss from the last 5 games. The team recently won three consecutive matches. Grêmio shows a form of WDDWL, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 fixtures. The last encounter for Grêmio resulted in a loss. Palmeiras won 1-0 against São Paulo, 2-1 against Botafogo, 1-0 against Mirassol, and 2-1 against Fluminense in their last five games, and lost 1-2 against Vasco da Gama. Grêmio won 2-0 against Vitória and 2-1 against Atlético Mineiro, drew 1-1 against Chapecoense and 1-1 against Bragantino, and lost 1-2 against Vasco da Gama in their last five games.

Palmeiras scored an average of 2.13 goals and conceded 1.0 goal per game in 8 season matches. At home, they averaged 2.0 goals scored and only 0.6 goals conceded per home game. Both teams scored in 6 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches. Grêmio averaged 1.63 goals scored and conceded 1.5 goals per game in 8 matches. Away from home, Grêmio conceded an average of 3.5 goals per game and scored 1.5 goals. Both teams scored in 6 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches. Palmeiras kept 2 clean sheets, while Grêmio managed 1.

In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, Palmeiras recorded 2 wins, Grêmio 1 win, and there was 1 draw. The goal difference is 6:5 in favor of Palmeiras. The last encounter on November 26, 2025, ended with a 2:3 loss for Palmeiras against Grêmio. According to the data, the home team has dominated recent direct encounters.

For Palmeiras, Andreas Pereira, José Manuel López, and Jhon Arias are important players. Andreas Pereira (Midfielder) scored 1 goal and 7 assists in 8 season appearances with an average rating of 7.43. His performance in the last 5 games shows 0 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.05, indicating a slightly declining trend. José Manuel López (Attacker) has 3 goals and 2 assists in 8 season appearances with a rating of 7.17. In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.96, showing a slightly declining trend. Jhon Arias (Attacker) scored 2 goals in 5 season appearances. In his last 5 games, he scored 3 goals with a rating of 7.10, showing a stable form. For Grêmio, Carlos Vinícius, Erick Noriega, and Cristian Pavón are significant. Carlos Vinícius (Attacker) has scored 6 goals in 8 season appearances and has an average rating of 7.07. In his last 5 games, he scored 2 goals with a rating of 6.76, indicating a declining trend. Erick Noriega (Midfielder) has 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 season appearances with a rating of 7.18. His performance in the last 4 games with 0 goals and 0 assists and a rating of 6.75 is declining. Cristian Pavón (Attacker) has 0 goals and 0 assists in 8 season appearances with a rating of 7.05. In his last 5 games, he shows a rising form with a rating of 7.25.

Palmeiras' goalkeeper, Carlos Miguel, has made 8 appearances this season and secured 2 clean sheets. Grêmio's goalkeeper, Weverton, has achieved 1 clean sheet in 8 season games.

Palmeiras demonstrates a strong offense at home, with an average of 2.0 goals scored, and a stable defense, conceding only 0.6 goals per home game. Grêmio, on the other hand, shows a vulnerable defense away from home, conceding an average of 3.5 goals per away game.