Serie A
Corinthians - Internacional
04/05/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%xG 分解
Corinthians
Internacional
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
38%
平局
31%
客胜
31%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
双重机会
主胜或平局
69%
客胜或平局
62%
非平局
69%
双方进球
是
50%
否
50%
关键因素
- Critical absence: Corinthians has only 37% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available due to missing key players like Rodrigo Garro (1G/3A) and Matheus Bidu (1G/1A)
- Form trend: Internacional shows a positive form trend and recently averaged 5.2 shots on target, while Corinthians only managed 3.0 shots on target
- Model prognosis: The mathematical analysis suggests a close match with a home win probability of 38% and an away win probability of 32%
风险因素
- Corinthians had only 3 days since their last match
- Corinthians averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述
Corinthians (14th place, 10 points) host Internacional (16th place, 9 points) in a Serie A match on April 5, 2026, 7:30 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, battling for crucial points to move away from the relegation zone. The mathematical analysis indicates a slight favoritism for the home team with a home win probability of 38%
近期状态
Corinthians' form (LDDDL) over the last five matches across all competitions shows no wins, three draws, and two losses. Their last match was a 1-3 away loss against Fluminense. Before that, they had a 1-1 home draw against Flamengo. Internacional (LLWWD) has two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Internacional recently played a 1-1 home draw against São Paulo, following a 2-0 home win against Chapecoense. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Corinthians averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded. Internacional also averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded overall. Away from home, Internacional conceded an average of 0.8 goals while scoring 0.8 goals. Corinthians' goal production is faltering with an average of 0.8 goals recently, while the season average is 1.0. Internacional is currently scoring more frequently (1.0 goals) than their season average (0.9 goals). The model predicts 1.26 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.14 expected goals for Internacional
历史交锋
In four head-to-head matches between Corinthians and Internacional, both teams secured one win each, with two draws. Corinthians scored seven goals, while Internacional scored six. The last encounter, on October 1, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw.
关键球员
Yuri Alberto, Corinthians attacker, recorded one goal and zero assists in five season appearances with an average rating of 6.81. André Luiz Santos Dias, Corinthians midfielder, scored one goal and zero assists in eight season appearances with an average rating of 6.62. Breno Bidon, Corinthians midfielder, registered one goal and zero assists in seven season appearances with an average rating of 6.79. Johan Carbonero, Internacional attacker, scored one goal and one assist in nine season appearances with an average rating of 6.9. Vitinho, Internacional attacker, provided zero goals and two assists in eight season appearances with an average rating of 6.93. Gabriel Mercado, Internacional defender, scored one goal and zero assists in six season appearances with an average rating of 6.68
门将
Corinthians' goalkeeper, Hugo Souza, achieved three clean sheets in eight season appearances. Sergio Rochet, Internacional's goalkeeper, recorded one clean sheet in eight season appearances
影响因素
Corinthians scored four goals and conceded five goals in four home games. Internacional scored four goals and conceded four goals in five away games