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Serie A

Coritiba - Fluminense

04/04/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Coritiba
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Fluminense
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
CORFLU

Coritiba

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.58倍)
-0.93
防守不足 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.63
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.51
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.03
Breno Lopes替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
37%进球产出缺失 (仅77%可用)

Fluminense

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.28倍)
+0.63
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.35
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.13
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
+0.13
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.05
Luciano Acosta未进大名单 (3球, 3助攻)
Agustín Canobbio替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
John Kennedy替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Renê替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Jefferson Savarino替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
48%进球产出缺失 (仅40%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

30%

客胜

38%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

62%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

70%

双方进球

53%

47%

关键因素
  • Critical absences: Fluminense plays with only 40% of their usual starting XI's goal threat, with five key players not selected
  • Offensive strength: Fluminense averaged 7.2 shots on target in their last 5 games and appears offensively strong
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis slightly favors Fluminense with a win probability of 38%
风险因素
  • Short recovery time: Coritiba had only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Short recovery time: Fluminense had only 2 days rest since their last match
  • Low shot efficiency: Coritiba averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述

Coritiba (7th place, 14 points) host Fluminense (2nd place, 19 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 5, 2026, 12:30 AM. Fluminense aims to close the gap to the top of the table, while Coritiba seeks to consolidate its position in the upper half of the standings

近期状态

Coritiba's form in the last 5 games is WWWLD, which corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The last match ended in a draw against Vasco da Gama. The form trend is stable according to analysis. Fluminense is in good shape with WWLWW in their last 5 matches, securing 4 wins and 1 loss. Fluminense recently defeated Corinthians 3-1. Their current form is rated as positive. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Coritiba scores an average of 1.11 goals per game this season and concedes an average of 1.0 goals. At home, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. They kept 3 clean sheets overall. Fluminense is stronger offensively with an average of 1.78 goals per game and concedes 1.11 goals. Away from home, Fluminense averages 2.0 goals scored and also concedes 2.0 goals. Fluminense scored in 6 matches, Coritiba in 3 matches. The pipeline calculation suggests both teams to score with a probability of 53%

历史交锋

No head-to-head data is available for this fixture

关键球员

For Coritiba, key players include Lucas Ronier (1 goal, 2 assists, 7.19 average rating), Jacy (1 goal, 0 assists, 6.86 average rating), and Josué (0 goals, 2 assists, 6.78 average rating). For Fluminense, Hércules (3 goals, 0 assists, 7.11 average rating), Martinelli (0 goals, 1 assist, 7.07 average rating), and Rodrigo Castillo (2 goals, 0 assists, 6.94 average rating) are notable

门将

Coritiba's goalkeeper Pedro Rangel has an average rating of 6.91 in 6 season appearances and kept one clean sheet at home. Fluminense's goalkeeper Fábio played in all 9 season appearances, with an average rating of 6.89, and recorded one away clean sheet

影响因素

Coritiba scored an average of 1.0 goals at home and conceded 1.5 goals. Fluminense scored an average of 2.0 goals away and also conceded 2.0 goals

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