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Serie A

Flamengo - Santos

04/05/2026, 08:30 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Flamengo
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Santos
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
FLASAN

Flamengo

防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.64
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.20
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.05
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第13位, 相差6位)
+0.04

Santos

小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.26
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.09
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第7位, 相差6位)
-0.06
Neymar 未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Gabriel Barbosa替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
60%进球产出缺失 (仅30%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

50%

平局

30%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

50%

非平局

70%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • Santos' offense is severely weakened by the absence of Neymar and Gabriel Barbosa, with only 30% of their usual goal production available
  • Santos averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 50% probability and expects 1.47 goals for Flamengo compared to 0.86 goals for Santos
风险因素
  • Flamengo has a short recovery period with only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Santos concedes an average of 2 goals per away game
概述

Flamengo (7th place, 14 points) host Santos (13th place, 10 points) in Serie A. The match is scheduled for April 5, 2026, 9:30 PM. Flamengo aims to advance into the upper echelons of the table, while Santos seeks to distance themselves from the relegation zone

近期状态

Flamengo shows a form of WWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from all competitions, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Their most recent streak ended with a loss. Santos has a form of DDLDW with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Their most recent streak ended with a win

统计数据

Flamengo averages 1.63 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game. They recorded 3 clean sheets in 8 games. At home, the average is 1.5 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded, with 2 clean sheets in 4 home games. Both teams scored in 4 out of 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches. Santos averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game. They recorded 2 clean sheets in 9 games. Away, the average is 1.25 goals scored and 2 goals conceded, with 1 clean sheet in 4 away games. Both teams scored in 7 out of 9 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, the record between Flamengo and Santos is even. Both teams have recorded 1 win each. The goal difference stands at 3:3. Flamengo won the last encounter 3:2 on November 9, 2025

关键球员

For Flamengo, Pedro is a key attacker with 2 goals and 2 assists and a season average rating of 7.01. Samuel Lino contributes with 2 goals and 1 assist and an average rating of 6.88. Léo Ortiz, as a defender, shows a season average rating of 7.18 with 1 goal and 1 assist. For Santos, Thaciano is significant with 1 goal and an average rating of 6.85. Álvaro Barreal has 1 goal and a season average rating of 6.86. Gonzalo Escobar as a defender provided 1 assist with a season average rating of 6.73, showing a rising form trend

门将

Flamengo's goalkeeper Agustín Rossi has recorded 3 clean sheets in 8 games and shows stable form. Santos' goalkeeper Gabriel Brazão has recorded 2 clean sheets in 9 games and shows a rising form trend

影响因素

Flamengo shows a strong defensive performance at home, conceding only 0.25 goals per game on average. Offensively, they score an average of 1.5 goals in their home stadium. Santos, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2 goals per away game

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