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Serie A

São Paulo - Cruzeiro

04/04/2026, 09:30 PM

4 : 1
预期进球
São Paulo
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Cruzeiro
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:0

13%

2:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
SPCRU

São Paulo

防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.96
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.13
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第17位, 相差14位)
+0.10
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.07
Danielzinho替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
14%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1.2球)

Cruzeiro

小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.22
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第3位, 相差14位)
-0.13
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.11
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.01
Néiser Villarreal替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.4球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

53%

平局

29%

客胜

18%

进球数

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

82%

客胜或平局

47%

非平局

71%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 53% probability
  • São Paulo's strong home defense (averaging 0.4 goals conceded) sharply contrasts with Cruzeiro's extremely vulnerable away defense (averaging 5.0 goals conceded)
  • São Paulo is placed 3rd in the league with 17 points, while Cruzeiro is struggling at 17th place with 7 points
风险因素
  • Both teams have had only 3 days since their last match, indicating potential fatigue
  • São Paulo's average shots on target in the last 5 games is 3.2, which is relatively low despite high possession
  • São Paulo's recent goal production has slowed (averaging 1.0 goals recently compared to 1.2 season average)
概述

São Paulo (3rd place, 17 points) host Cruzeiro (17th place, 7 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 4, 2026, 6:30 PM

São Paulo aims to solidify its position in the top half of the table, while Cruzeiro needs crucial points in the relegation battle

近期状态

São Paulo's form across all competitions is WWLLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), with their last game ending in a draw

Cruzeiro's form is LDLDW (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), with a win in their last game

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

São Paulo's goal production has recently stalled (averaging 1.0 goals), while Cruzeiro is currently scoring more frequently (averaging 1.8 goals)

统计数据

São Paulo has scored an average of 1.22 goals and conceded 0.67 goals this season

At home, they average 1.2 goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded

Cruzeiro has scored an average of 1.22 goals and conceded 1.78 goals

Away from home, their defense is very vulnerable, conceding an average of 5.0 goals while scoring 1.5

São Paulo kept 3 clean sheets, Cruzeiro 2

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, São Paulo recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and Cruzeiro achieved 1 win

São Paulo scored 4 goals and conceded 2

The last match was won by Cruzeiro away on August 31, 2025, with a score of 1:0

关键球员

For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri  (5 season goals, 3 goals in last 5 games), Luciano (2 season goals, 1 assist, 1 goal in last 5 games), and Sabino (1 season goal, 1 goal in last 5 games) are key players

For Cruzeiro, Kaio Jorge  (2 season goals, 3 goals in last 5 games), Matheus Pereira (2 season goals, 1 assist, 1 goal and 1 assist in last 5 games), and Christian (2 season goals, 1 assist, 2 goals and 1 assist in last 5 games) are important figures

门将

São Paulo's goalkeeper Rafael played 9 season games

The São Paulo team kept 3 clean sheets

For Cruzeiro, Matheus Cunha played in 5 season games

Cruzeiro managed to keep a clean sheet in 2 games

影响因素

São Paulo shows a solid home performance with 6 goals scored and only 2 goals conceded in 5 home games

Cruzeiro, on the other hand, conceded 10 goals and scored 3 in 2 away games

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