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Serie A

Chapecoense - Vitória

04/05/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Chapecoense
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Vitória
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
CHAVIT

Chapecoense

防守不足 (场均失2.1球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
+0.50
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球)
-0.33
状态下滑 (0.2 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.31
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.11
Walter Clar替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
48%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.7球 vs 总体1.3球)

Vitória

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.44倍)
-0.48
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.28
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.06
Baralhas 未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)
35%进球产出缺失 (仅63%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体1球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

53%

平局

28%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

47%

非平局

72%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Chapecoense with a 53% probability
  • Away defense: Vitória concedes an extremely high average of 5.5 goals per away game
  • Team form: Both teams show a negative form trend and stagnant goal production according to advanced stats
风险因素
  • Limited data availability: No data is available for head-to-head matches or venue history
  • Home team fatigue: Chapecoense had a short rest with only 3 days since their last match
  • Key player absence: Vitória is without Baralhas , leaving only 64% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
概述

Chapecoense (17th place, 7 points) host Vitória (15th place, 10 points) in Serie A on April 5, 2026, 8:00 PM. Both teams are in the lower third of the table, with Chapecoense on the verge of the relegation zone. A win is crucial for both to avoid losing ground to the mid-table teams.

近期状态

Chapecoense's form across all competitions is LDDLL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). They have suffered two consecutive losses recently. Vitória's form is DWLWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their last match resulted in a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

统计数据

Chapecoense averages 1.13 goals scored per game and concedes 1.88 goals. At home, they score 1.14 goals and concede 1.43 goals per game. The team recorded 1 clean sheet. Vitória averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.63 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they score 1.0 goal and concede a very high 5.5 goals per game. Vitória has kept 3 clean sheets.

历史交锋

No data is available for head-to-head matches between Chapecoense and Vitória.

关键球员

For Chapecoense, Jean Carlos shows an average rating of 7.13 with 2 goals and 2 assists in 7 appearances. Doma scored 1 goal in 7 games. Everton contributed 1 assist. For Vitória, Erick (1 goal, 2 assists in 8 games, rating 6.86), Renato Kayzer (2 goals in 6 games), and Ramon (1 goal in 8 games) are the standout performers.

门将

Chapecoense's goalkeeper is Rafael Santos. For Vitória, Lucas Arcanjo is in goal, having played 5 matches and kept 3 clean sheets this season. Chapecoense has achieved 1 clean sheet, Vitória 3 clean sheets.

影响因素

Chapecoense has scored 8 goals and conceded 10 goals in 7 home games. Vitória has scored 2 goals and conceded 11 goals in 2 away games. Chapecoense's home advantage could be amplified by the opponent's poor away record. No weather data is available for the match.

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