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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Athletico PR

04/05/2026, 08:30 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Atlético Mineiro
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Athletico PR
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

11%

2:1

8%

0:1

8%
xG 分解
AMAP

Atlético Mineiro

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.68倍)
-0.76
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.42
防守不足 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.42
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.04
全员可用

Athletico PR

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.15
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.13
状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.13
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.69倍)
-0.04
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.03
Julimar替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
10%进球产出缺失 (仅91%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.6球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

41%

平局

31%

客胜

28%

进球数

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

双重机会

主胜或平局

72%

客胜或平局

59%

非平局

69%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a 41% probability for a home win
  • Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game, making their defense vulnerable
  • Atlético Mineiro shows a strong home offense with 1.4 goals per game and positive form in their last five matches
风险因素
  • Atlético Mineiro has only 58% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Atlético Mineiro had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Athletico PR is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.6)
概述

Atlético Mineiro (10th place, 11 points) host Athletico PR (5th place, 16 points) in a Serie A match. The game will be played on April 5, 2026, 5:30 PM. Atlético Mineiro aims to close the gap to the top half of the table, while Athletico PR seeks to solidify its position in the top group

近期状态

Atlético Mineiro's form in their last five matches is WLWLW (3 wins, 2 losses)

Their last game ended in a win

Athletico PR's form over their last five matches is LWWWL (3 wins, 2 losses), with their most recent match being a loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.33 goals per game and concedes 1.22 goals

At home, they score 1.4 goals and concede 1 goal per home game

They kept 3 clean sheets this season

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.56 goals per game and concedes 1.22 goals

Away from home, they score an average of 1.33 goals and concede 2.33 goals per away game

They kept 2 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 3 of Atlético Mineiro's home matches and 5 of Athletico PR's away matches

历史交锋

In 2 direct encounters, Atlético Mineiro won 1 match and Athletico PR won 1 match

The goal difference is even with 1:1 goals

The last encounter was a 1-0 home win for Atlético Mineiro on December 8, 2024

The head-to-head record is even

关键球员

For Atlético Mineiro: Tomás Cuello (2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, form rising), Hulk  (1 goal, 2 assists this season, stable), Victor Hugo (2 goals, 1 assist this season, stable)

For Athletico PR: Kevin Viveros (5 goals, 1 assist this season, stable, 3 goals in last 5 games), Stiven Mendoza (3 goals this season, stable, 2 goals in last 5 games), Lucas Esquivel (1 goal, 3 assists this season, form declining)

Not nominated for Athletico PR: Julimar (2 goals, 1 assist this season)

门将

Atlético Mineiro's goalkeeper Everson has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Athletico PR's goalkeeper Santos  has recorded 2 clean sheets

影响因素

Atlético Mineiro averages 1.4 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per home game

Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game

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