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Serie A

Mirassol - Bragantino

04/05/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Mirassol
1.2
Total xG
2.8
Bragantino
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
MIRBRA

Mirassol

小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.39
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.14
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.14
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第12位, 相差7位)
-0.09
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.02
Negueba未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
33%进球产出缺失 (仅90%可用)

Bragantino

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.57倍)
+1.24
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.77
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.06
排名优势 (第12位 vs 第19位, 相差7位)
+0.05
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.04
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

28%

平局

28%

客胜

44%

进球数

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

双重机会

主胜或平局

56%

客胜或平局

72%

非平局

72%

双方进球

58%

42%

关键因素
  • The pipeline analysis favors Bragantino with a 44% win probability compared to 28% for Mirassol
  • Mirassol's goal production is stagnant with 0.8 goals in recent games, while Bragantino has increased to 1.2 goals per game
  • Bragantino historically dominates direct encounters with 1 win and 1 draw from 2 matches
风险因素
  • Bragantino had only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Bragantino's defense conceded an average of 2.5 goals per away game
  • Only 67% of Bragantino's usual goal production is currently available
概述

Mirassol (19th place, 6 points) hosts Bragantino (12th place, 11 points) in a Serie A match

The game is scheduled for April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM

Mirassol is fighting at the bottom of the table, while Bragantino is positioned in the mid-table of the league

近期状态

Mirassol is currently in poor form with 4 consecutive losses (DLLLL)

Overall, Mirassol has 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses from their last 5 games

Bragantino recently improved and won their last match (DLLLW)

Bragantino's form in the last 5 games is 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The analysis of current data confirms Mirassol's negative form trend

Bragantino, on the other hand, shows a positive form trend

统计数据

Mirassol scores an average of 1.25 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.63 goals per game this season

Bragantino scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.11 goals per game

Mirassol has not kept any clean sheets this season

Bragantino has kept 3 clean sheets

In home games, Mirassol averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded

Away from home, Bragantino scores 1.0 goals and concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game

Mirassol's matches have seen both teams score in 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 5 games

Bragantino's matches have seen both teams score in 4 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 games

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, Bragantino secured 1 win and there was 1 draw

Mirassol has not yet won any of the direct encounters

The goal difference is 1:2 in favor of Bragantino

The last meeting ended in a 1:1 draw on October 1, 2025

关键球员

For Mirassol, Igor Formiga is in good form with 3 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 7.07

Shaylon contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season, with a rating of 6.91

Alesson has provided 2 assists this season and has a rating of 6.79

Not in the squad for Mirassol: Negueba (2 goals, 0 assists)

For Bragantino, Juninho Capixaba is important with 2 season goals and 1 assist, most recently with 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.30

Henry Mosquera has 1 assist this season and achieves a rating of 7.20

Lucas Barbosa scored 1 goal this season and 1 goal recently, with a rating of 7.05

门将

Walter, Mirassol's goalkeeper, has not managed to keep a clean sheet in any game this season

Tiago Volpi, Bragantino's goalkeeper, achieved an average rating of 7.90 in his appearance this season

Bragantino has achieved a total of 3 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Mirassol averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded in home games

Bragantino scores 1.0 goals and concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game away from home

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