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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Botafogo

04/05/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 2
预期进球
Vasco da Gama
1.8
Total xG
2.5
Botafogo
0.7
最可能的比分

1:0

14%

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
VDGBOT

Vasco da Gama

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.19
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.19
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.18
防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.07
排名优势 (第8位 vs 第16位, 相差8位)
+0.07
Paulo Henrique替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Botafogo

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.6倍)
-0.69
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.38
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.10
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第8位, 相差8位)
-0.06
Álvaro Montoro替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

62%

平局

25%

客胜

13%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

87%

客胜或平局

38%

非平局

75%

双方进球

43%

57%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Vasco da Gama with a 62% probability
  • Botafogo's away defense is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.25 goals per away game
  • Vasco da Gama currently shows a strong offense, scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.6)
风险因素
  • The historical record shows Botafogo's dominance in head-to-head matches, with 3 wins and 1 draw against 0 losses
  • Botafogo's goal production is currently stagnant (1.4), compared to their season average of 1.8 goals
概述

Vasco da Gama (8th place, 12 points) host Botafogo (16th place, 9 points) in a Serie A match on April 4, 2026, 9:00 PM. Vasco aims to solidify their position in the upper half of the table, while Botafogo seeks to escape the relegation zone.

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Vasco da Gama is in good form with WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches

Their last outing was a 1-1 away draw against Coritiba

In their last five games, Vasco scored an average of 2.2 goals, exceeding their season average of 1.6 goals

Botafogo's form in their last five matches is LLWLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)

Their most recent result was a 3-2 home win against Mirassol

Botafogo's goal production is currently stagnant, averaging 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.8 goals

统计数据

Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.56 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals

At home, they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded

Both teams scored (BTTS) in 8 out of 9 Vasco matches

Botafogo has a season average of 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 goals conceded

Away from home, Botafogo conceded an average of 3.25 goals while scoring 1.75 goals

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 out of 8 Botafogo matches

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Vasco da Gama has not secured any wins

Botafogo has won 3 matches, with one ending in a draw

The goal difference is a clear 9:1 in favor of Botafogo

The last encounter saw Botafogo win 3-0 on November 5, 2025

关键球员

For Vasco da Gama, Cuiabano (2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 7.74 Rating), Cauan Barros (3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 7.10 Rating) and Thiago Mendes (3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 7.41 Rating) are crucial

For Botafogo, Danilo (2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, Avg. 7.08 Rating), Alex Telles (2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 6.58 Rating) and Arthur Cabral (1 goal, 0 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 6.77 Rating) are key players

门将

Vasco da Gama's goalkeeper, Léo Jardim, has not kept any clean sheets in 9 season appearances

Botafogo's goalkeeper Raul has recorded one clean sheet in 5 appearances

影响因素

Vasco da Gama has shown solid offense at home with an average of 1.6 goals scored and a stable defense with 1.2 goals conceded

Botafogo has scored an average of 1.75 goals away, but demonstrated high vulnerability by conceding 3.25 goals per game

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