Serie A
Bahia - Palmeiras
04/05/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.5
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
11%2:0
10%0:0
10%2:1
9%xG 分解
Bahia
Palmeiras
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
50%
平局
29%
客胜
22%
进球数
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
双重机会
主胜或平局
78%
客胜或平局
50%
非平局
71%
双方进球
是
50%
否
50%
关键因素
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 50% for Bahia
- Bahia shows consistent goal production (currently 1.6 goals per game), while Palmeiras recently scored fewer goals (1.4 vs. 2.11 season average)
- Bahia was possession-dominant in the last five games (56% possession) and averaged 5.0 shots on target
风险因素
- Palmeiras had only 2 days of rest since their last match
- The pipeline prediction for Over 2.5 goals is only 46%
- Limited data available for duel statistics from the last 5 games
概述
Bahia (4th place, 17 points) host Palmeiras (1st place, 22 points) in a Serie A top match on April 5, 2026, 11:30 PM
The game promises excitement as Bahia aims to secure their lead over pursuers and close the gap to the top
近期状态
Bahia shows a stable performance with a DWWLW form in their last five games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Their last home game against Athletico PR resulted in a 3-0 victory
Palmeiras is in good shape with a LWWWW form (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games
The team won their last away game against São Paulo with a 1-0 score
统计数据
Bahia scored an average of 1.5 goals per game this season and conceded 0.88 goals
At home, Bahia is defensively strong with an average of 0.4 goals conceded per home game and 1.4 goals scored
Palmeiras is more offensive with an average of 2.11 goals scored per game and conceded 1.0 goals
Away from home, Palmeiras scored an average of 2.33 goals and conceded 1.67 goals
In Bahia's matches, both teams scored in four out of eight games
For Palmeiras, both teams scored in seven out of nine games
历史交锋
In four head-to-head matches, the record is balanced with two wins for Bahia and two wins for Palmeiras
The goal difference slightly favors Palmeiras with 4:3
The last encounter was won by Bahia at home on September 28, 2025, with a 1-0 score
关键球员
For Bahia, Everaldo with three goals in four of the last five matches, Luciano Juba (two goals, one assist), and Jean Lucas (one goal, two assists) are in strong form
Everton Ribeiro (one assist) and Cristian Olivera (one assist) are other important attacking players for Bahia
Not nominated for Bahia: Willian José (2G/1A)
For Palmeiras, Marlon Freitas showed rising form in the last five games with two goals and one assist
Jhon Arias contributed three goals in the last five matches
Andreas Pereira collected three assists in the last five games
Gustavo Gómez and Murilo are important defenders for Palmeiras
门将
Bahia's goalkeeper, Léo Vieira, appeared in one league game and has 4 clean sheets this season
Carlos Miguel of Palmeiras played in eight league games and recorded 2 clean sheets
影响因素
Bahia shows a very strong defense at home with only 0.4 goals conceded on average
Palmeiras, on the other hand, is offensively strong away from home with an average of 2.33 goals per game