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Serie A

Vitória - São Paulo

04/11/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Vitória
1.1
Total xG
2.2
São Paulo
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

7%
xG 分解
VITSP

Vitória

小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.37
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第2位, 相差12位)
-0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.06
11%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1球)

São Paulo

防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.36
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.11
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第14位, 相差12位)
+0.06
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.03
Jonathan Calleri 未进大名单 (6球, 0助攻)
Luciano替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
52%进球产出缺失 (仅63%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

34%

平局

33%

客胜

33%

进球数

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

双重机会

主胜或平局

67%

客胜或平局

66%

非平局

67%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • Table Position: São Paulo is significantly ahead of Vitória (2nd vs. 14th place), indicating overall strength
  • São Paulo's Defensive Strength: São Paulo has conceded an average of only 0.7 goals per game this season
  • Vitória's Home Defense: Vitória shows strong defensive performance at home, conceding only 0.33 goals per home game
风险因素
  • São Paulo is missing key offensive players, reducing their available goal threat to 63%; Jonathan Calleri (6G/0A) and Luciano (2G/1A) are out
  • São Paulo averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Vitória's goal production shows a negative form trend (0.8 goals recently compared to 1.0 season average)
概述

Vitória (14th place, 11 points) hosts second-placed São Paulo (2nd place, 20 points) in a Serie A match on April 11, 2026, 7:30 PM

São Paulo aims to solidify its position in the top group

The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with a home win probability of 34%, a draw of 33%, and an away win of 34%

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Vitória enters the match with a form of WLWLD

The team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

São Paulo shows the form WLLDW

They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Vitória's goal production has recently stalled with an average of 0.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.0 goals

São Paulo consistently scores and shows a stable form trend with an average of 1.4 goals per game in recent matches

统计数据

Vitória scores an average of 1.0 goals per season and concedes 1.56 goals

São Paulo, on the other hand, is stronger offensively with an average of 1.5 goals and more solid defensively with only 0.7 goals conceded per game

At home, Vitória scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes only 0.33 goals

São Paulo is also offensively oriented away from home, with 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game

Vitória saw both teams score in 4 of 9 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 games

São Paulo had both teams score in 5 of 10 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 games

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Vitória secured 1 win

São Paulo won 3 of these encounters, with no draws

The goal difference is 3:7 in favor of São Paulo

The last meeting was won by Vitória 1-0 on December 7, 2025

关键球员

For Vitória, Baralhas with 2 goals and 2 assists and an average rating of 7.22, and Erick with 1 goal and 2 assists with a rating of 6.93 are crucial

Renato Kayzer contributes to the offense with 2 goals and a rating of 6.83

For São Paulo, Ferreirinha with 3 goals and a rating of 7.13, Danielzinho with 1 goal and 1 assist and a rating of 7.20, and Marcos Antônio with 2 assists and a rating of 6.81 are important players

门将

Lucas Arcanjo will guard the goal for Vitória, while Rafael will play for São Paulo

Vitória has recorded 3 clean sheets this season

São Paulo also recorded 3 clean sheets

影响因素

Vitória shows a very strong defensive performance in home games, conceding an average of only 0.33 goals

This could be an advantage against São Paulo's away attacking style, which averages 1.67 goals per away game

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