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Serie A

Corinthians - Palmeiras

04/12/2026, 09:30 PM

0 : 0
预期进球
Corinthians
0.9
Total xG
2.0
Palmeiras
1.0
最可能的比分

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

11%

0:2

7%
xG 分解
CORPAL

Corinthians

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.6倍)
-0.85
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.40
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.35
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第1位, 相差15位)
-0.17
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.09
12%进球产出缺失 (仅87%可用)

Palmeiras

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.21
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.15
状态下滑 (1.6 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
-0.15
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第16位, 相差15位)
+0.07
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1球)
-0.03
Jhon Arias未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体2.1球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

35%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

65%

双方进球

41%

59%

关键因素
  • Form difference: Corinthians is in a crisis (DDDLL), while Palmeiras boasts a perfect streak of 5 wins (WWWWW)
  • Table situation: The clash between league leaders Palmeiras and relegation-threatened Corinthians
  • Goal production: Corinthians scores only an average of 0.8 goals per home game
风险因素
  • Corinthians scores only an average of 0.8 goals per home game (homeGoalsScoredAvg)
  • Palmeiras' goal production is stalling (1.6), season average is 2.1 (advancedStats.away.description)
  • Corinthians averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games (homeTacticalMetrics.avgShotsOnTarget)
概述

Corinthians (16th place, 10 points) host Palmeiras (1st place, 25 points) in a Serie A encounter. The Paulista derby takes place on April 12, 2026, 6:30 PM. Corinthians aim to distance themselves from the relegation zone, while Palmeiras looks to defend its top spot.

近期状态

Corinthians' form across all competitions is DDDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This equates to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

The last match resulted in a loss (0-1 against Internacional)

Palmeiras displays an excellent form of WWWWW

This equates to 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

The last match was won (2-1 against Bahia)

Corinthians lost their last two games, while Palmeiras is on a 5-win streak

统计数据

Corinthians averages 0.8 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.1 goals

At home, Corinthians also scores 0.8 goals and concedes 1.2 goals per home game

Palmeiras shows strong offense with an average of 2.1 goals scored per game and concedes 1.0 goals

Away from home, Palmeiras scores 2.25 goals and concedes 1.5 goals per away game

Corinthians kept 3 clean sheets, while Palmeiras recorded 2

For Corinthians, 5 matches saw both teams score, compared to 8 for Palmeiras

历史交锋

In 4 previous head-to-head matches, Corinthians recorded 1 win

Palmeiras won 2 of these encounters, and 1 match ended in a draw

Corinthians scored 3 goals in these duels, while Palmeiras scored 5

The last meeting on August 31, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Recent results indicate Palmeiras' dominance in direct matchups

关键球员

For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 3 assists, avg rating 7.21), Matheus Bidu (1 goal, 1 assist, avg rating 6.99) and Gabriel Paulista (1 goal, 0 assists, avg rating 6.99) are important players

Rodrigo Garro shows stable form with a rating of 7.16 in the last 5 games

Matheus Bidu provided 1 assist in the last 5 matches with a rating of 6.85

Gabriel Paulista is in declining form with a rating of 6.78 in the last 5 games

For Palmeiras, Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 8 assists, avg rating 7.43), José Manuel López (3 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.16) and Marlon Freitas (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.07) stand out

Andreas Pereira shows declining form with 3 assists in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.07

José Manuel López shows declining form with 1 assist in the last 5 games and a rating of 6.74

Marlon Freitas is in stable form with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.19

门将

Corinthians' goalkeeper is Hugo Souza, who recorded 3 clean sheets in 9 season appearances

For Palmeiras, Carlos Miguel is in goal, keeping 2 clean sheets in 10 season appearances

影响因素

Corinthians scores an average of 0.8 goals at home and concedes 1.2 goals

Palmeiras scores an average of 2.25 goals away and concedes 1.5 goals

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