Serie A
Fluminense - Flamengo
04/12/2026, 09:00 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
11%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%xG 分解
Fluminense
Flamengo
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
48%
平局
30%
客胜
23%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
78%
双重机会
主胜或平局
77%
客胜或平局
52%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
49%
否
51%
关键因素
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates Fluminense with a 48% win probability compared to Flamengo's 23%
- Home Strength: Fluminense concedes an average of only 0.67 goals at home, while Flamengo concedes 1.75 goals per away game
- Tactical Superiority: Fluminense averaged 6.6 shots on target recently, compared to Flamengo's 3.2
风险因素
- Flamengo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games (tactical analysis)
- The historical head-to-head record is balanced with 2 wins for each team, suggesting an unpredictable outcome
- The pipeline predicts a draw with a probability of 30%
概述
Fluminense (2nd place, 20 points) host Flamengo (5th place, 17 points) in a Serie A match on April 12, 2026, 11:00 PM. The fixture is an important derby with direct implications for the top spots in the league table. Both teams are fighting for a strong position.
近期状态
Fluminense's recent form is WLWWD, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. Their last result was a 1-1 draw. Flamengo's form is WWDLW, also with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a 3-1 victory. Fluminense are currently scoring more (Avg. 2.0 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.7 goals). Flamengo are also scoring more (Avg. 2.0 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.8 goals).
统计数据
Fluminense averages 1.7 goals scored per game and concedes 1.1 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded. Flamengo averages 1.78 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game this season. Away from home, they score 1.75 goals and concede 1.75 goals per game. Fluminense has kept 3 clean sheets this season, as has Flamengo. For Fluminense, 7 games ended with both teams scoring, while for Flamengo it was 5.
历史交锋
In 4 head-to-head encounters, the record is balanced with 2 wins for Fluminense and 2 wins for Flamengo, with no draws. Fluminense scored 4 goals and Flamengo scored 3 goals. The last match was a 2-1 victory for Fluminense on November 20, 2025.
关键球员
For Fluminense, key players include Luciano Acosta with 3 goals and 3 assists, John Kennedy with 4 goals, and Hércules with 3 goals. For Flamengo, Pedro stands out with 3 goals and 2 assists, Samuel Lino with 2 goals and 1 assist, and Lucas Paquetá with 2 goals. Jefferson Savarino (0 goals, 2 assists) is not in the lineup for Fluminense.
门将
Fluminense goalkeeper Fábio made 10 appearances and kept 3 clean sheets. For Flamengo, Agustín Rossi played in 9 games and also achieved 3 clean sheets.
影响因素
Fluminense demonstrates strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.67 goals in home matches. Tactical analysis shows Fluminense being possession-dominant in their last 5 games (62% possession), with an average of 6.6 shots on target.