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Serie A

Athletico PR - Chapecoense

04/12/2026, 02:00 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Athletico PR
2.1
Total xG
2.9
Chapecoense
0.8
最可能的比分

2:0

12%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

9%

3:1

7%
xG 分解
APCHA

Athletico PR

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.91
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.27
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第17位, 相差11位)
+0.11
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.09
Gastón Benavídez替补席 (0球, 3助攻)

Chapecoense

防守不足 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1球)
+0.96
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.5倍)
-0.83
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.66
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.26
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.23
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第6位, 相差11位)
-0.10
Walter Clar替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
60%进球产出缺失 (仅41%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体1.2球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

67%

平局

21%

客胜

11%

进球数

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

双重机会

主胜或平局

89%

客胜或平局

33%

非平局

79%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis shows a high probability of 67% for an Athletico PR home win
  • Chapecoense's offense is significantly weakened by the absence of Walter Clar (3 goals, 1 assist), with only 42% of the usual goal threat available
  • Athletico PR shows a positive form trend with currently higher goal production (1.8 goals per game) compared to the season average (1.5 goals per game), while Chapecoense's goal production is stagnant (0.5 goals per game recently) and their away defense is extremely vulnerable (5.0 goals conceded per away game)
风险因素
  • Limited data available for head-to-head matches and venue history
  • Chapecoense recorded an average of only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述

Athletico PR (6th place, 16 points) host Chapecoense (17th place, 8 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 12, 2026, 4:00 PM

Athletico PR aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Chapecoense is battling against relegation

近期状态

Athletico PR's form is "WWWLL", meaning 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 games across all competitions

Athletico PR recorded 3 wins and 2 losses, with two consecutive losses recently

According to advanced analysis, Athletico PR shows a positive form trend

Chapecoense's form is "DDLLD", with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in the last 5 games

Chapecoense recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with the last result being a draw

Advanced analysis identifies a negative form trend for Chapecoense

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Athletico PR averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per game

At home, they are defensively stable with an average of 1.43 goals scored and only 0.57 goals conceded per home game

The team kept 2 clean sheets and saw both teams score (BTTS) in 6 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches

Chapecoense averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 goals conceded per game

Away from home, they are very vulnerable with an average of 1.0 goals scored and extremely high 5.0 goals conceded per away game

The team kept 1 clean sheet and had BTTS in 5 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 matches

历史交锋

No data is available for direct encounters between Athletico PR and Chapecoense

关键球员

For Athletico PR:

Kevin Viveros, attacker, scored 5 goals and 1 assist this season, with an average rating of 6.95

In the last 5 games, he scored 3 times in 5 appearances, confirming his stable form trend

Julimar, attacker, has 3 goals and 1 assist this season with a rating of 6.74

His form trend is stable

Dudu, midfielder, recorded 1 goal and 1 assist this season with a rating of 6.71

His form trend is stable, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Chapecoense:

Higor Meritão, midfielder, scored 1 goal this season with a rating of 6.85

His form trend is stable

Doma, defender, scored 1 goal this season with a rating of 6.8

His form trend is stable

Marcos Vinícius, defender, provided 1 assist this season and shows a stable form trend

门将

Athletico PR's goalkeeper Santos has an average rating of 6.78 in 10 season appearances and recorded 2 clean sheets for his team

Chapecoense's goalkeeper Rafael Santos has an average rating of 7.19 in 2 season appearances and recorded 1 clean sheet for his team

影响因素

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.43 goals at home and concedes 0.57 goals

Chapecoense concedes an average of 5.0 goals away and scores 1.0 goals

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