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Serie A

Botafogo - Coritiba

04/12/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Botafogo
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Coritiba
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
xG 分解
BOTCOR

Botafogo

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.67倍)
-0.67
防守不足 (场均失2.1球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
+0.54
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.36
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第7位, 相差8位)
-0.10
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.01
Alex Telles 替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Matheus Martins替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Edenilson替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
18%进球产出缺失 (仅100%可用)

Coritiba

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.21
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.09
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.09
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第15位, 相差8位)
+0.05
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

34%

平局

32%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

67%

非平局

68%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • Extremely balanced prediction: The model forecasts a win probability of 34% for Botafogo and 35% for Coritiba, with a 32% chance for a draw
  • Coritiba's strong away defense: The team concedes an average of only 0.86 goals per away game
  • Botafogo's improved home defense: At home, the team concedes an average of only 1.25 goals, significantly better than their season average
风险因素
  • Coritiba's offensive struggles: The team averaged only 0.8 goals and 3.4 shots on target in their last five games
  • Botafogo's general defensive vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 2.11 goals per game over the entire season
概述

Botafogo (15th place, 12 points) host Coritiba (7th place, 15 points) in a Serie A match. The game is scheduled for April 12, 2026, 7:00 PM. Botafogo is fighting to move away from the relegation zone, while Coritiba aims for a higher league position. The mathematical analysis predicts a very balanced match.

近期状态

Botafogo's form in their last five matches is LWLWW, with three wins and two losses. Botafogo has won their last two games. Coritiba shows a form of WWLDD, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Coritiba has drawn their last two games. According to advanced statistics, Botafogo's form trend is stable, while Coritiba's form is rated as negative. Botafogo recently averaged 1.8 goals per game and conceded 2 goals, which aligns with their season average of 1.78 goals and 2.11 goals conceded. Coritiba, however, recently averaged 0.8 goals per game and conceded 0.8 goals, which is below their season average of 1.1 goals and 1 goal conceded. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Botafogo has scored an average of 1.78 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 2.11 goals per game. At home, Botafogo scored an average of 1.75 goals and conceded 1.25 goals. They kept one clean sheet and had both teams score in six matches. Coritiba recorded a season average of 1.1 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game. Away from home, Coritiba scored an average of 1.14 goals and conceded only 0.86 goals per away match. They kept their defense clean in three games and had both teams score in four matches.

历史交锋

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between the two teams

关键球员

For Botafogo, Danilo stands out with five season goals and one assist, contributing two goals in his last five games. Alexander Barboza recorded one season goal and two assists, with one goal in his last five appearances. Arthur Cabral scored two season goals and one assist, also finding the net once in his last three games. Not nominated for Botafogo are Alex Telles (2G/0A), Matheus Martins (2G/0A), and Edenilson (1G/1A). For Coritiba, Lucas Ronier has shown solid performance with one season goal and two assists. Breno Lopes scored three season goals and one assist, providing one assist in his last five games. Josué has been involved in three assists this season.

门将

Botafogo's goalkeeper, Raul, has made six appearances this season and recorded one clean sheet. For Coritiba, Pedro Rangel has featured in seven season games and kept three clean sheets.

影响因素

Botafogo scored an average of 1.75 goals at home and conceded 1.25 goals. Coritiba scored an average of 1.14 goals away and conceded 0.86 goals. The dataset does not contain information on specific venue or weather influences.

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