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Serie A

Mirassol - Bahia

04/11/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
Mirassol
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Bahia
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
MIRBAH

Mirassol

排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第5位, 相差15位)
-0.22
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.21
状态下滑 (0.4 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.21
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.09
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.04
Shaylon替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Alesson替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Bahia

小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.35
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第20位, 相差15位)
+0.10
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.05
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

29%

客胜

39%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

61%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

71%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • League Position: Bahia is in 5th place, while Mirassol is at the bottom of the table
  • Recent Form: Bahia shows better form with 'WWLWL' compared to Mirassol's 'LLLLL' streak
  • Mathematical Prediction: The analysis slightly favors Bahia with a 39% win probability
风险因素
  • Historical Home Strength: Mirassol won the last direct encounter at home with a 5-1 score
  • Squad Impact: Mirassol is missing Shaylon (1G/1A) and Alesson (0G/2A), representing 87% of usual starting XI goal threat
概述

Mirassol (20th place, 6 points) hosts Bahia (5th place, 17 points) in a Serie A match on April 11, 2026, 10:30 PM

Mirassol is struggling at the bottom of the table and urgently needs points

Bahia aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table

近期状态

Mirassol shows very poor form across all competitions with 'LLLLL'

The team lost its last 5 consecutive matches

The most recent result was a 0-1 defeat against Bragantino

Bahia has mixed form with 'WWLWL'

The team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in its last 5 games

The last outing ended in a 1-2 loss against Palmeiras

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Mirassol scores an average of 1.11 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals per game

The team kept no clean sheets and 5 matches saw over 2.5 goals

Bahia scores an average of 1.44 goals per game and concedes 1.00 goals per game

Bahia kept 4 clean sheets and 4 matches saw over 2.5 goals

Mirassol scored an average of 1.2 goals at home and conceded 1.4 goals

Bahia scored an average of 1.67 goals away and conceded 1.67 goals

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, Mirassol has 1 win and there was 1 draw

Mirassol scored 6 goals, Bahia 2 goals

Mirassol won the last encounter at home with a 5-1 score on August 31, 2025

Mirassol has been dominant in recent direct encounters

关键球员

For Mirassol, Igor Formiga (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.06 rating) and Negueba (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.33 rating) are important players

Eduardo scored 1 goal with no assists and an avg rating of 6.75

For Bahia, Luciano Juba (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.20 rating) and Jean Lucas (2 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.89 rating) are key

Everaldo has 3 goals and 0 assists with an avg rating of 7.18

门将

Mirassol's goalkeeper, Walter, has 0 clean sheets this season

Léo Vieira, Bahia's goalkeeper, recorded 2 clean sheets in his away games

影响因素

Mirassol scores an average of 1.2 goals at home and concedes 1.4 goals

Bahia scores an average of 1.67 goals away and concedes 1.67 goals

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