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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - São Paulo

04/18/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Vasco da Gama
1.2
Total xG
2.2
São Paulo
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
VDGSP

Vasco da Gama

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.24
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第3位, 相差10位)
-0.14
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.04
主场表现强势 (场均1.8球 vs 总体1.4球)
全员可用

São Paulo

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1球)
-0.22
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.11
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.11
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第13位, 相差10位)
+0.05
Marcos Antônio未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.4球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

40%

平局

32%

客胜

28%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

72%

客胜或平局

60%

非平局

68%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis shows a 40% probability for a home win
  • Vasco da Gama displays a positive form development with higher current goal production (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.5 goals)
  • São Paulo is currently struggling with a declining goal production, averaging 1.0 goals compared to 1.4 goals season average
风险因素
  • São Paulo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Marcos Antônio is missing for São Paulo (0 goals, 2 assists)
  • São Paulo has lost 3 of their last 5 away games
概述

Vasco da Gama (13th place, 13 points) host São Paulo (3rd place, 20 points) in Serie A

Kick-off is on April 18, 2026, 10:30 PM

São Paulo is fighting for a top spot, while Vasco da Gama aims to establish itself in midfield

近期状态

Vasco da Gama's recent form (WWDLD) shows a mix of wins and draws

In their last five matches, they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw against Remo

São Paulo is in a more challenging period (LLDWL)

Their away form in the last five games shows 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

They recently lost 0-2 away to Vitória

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Vasco da Gama averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 goals conceded per game

Both teams scored in 10 out of 11 matches

7 of 11 games ended with over 2.5 goals

In home games, their average is 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

São Paulo scores an average of 1.36 goals and concedes only 0.82 goals per game

They have kept 3 clean sheets this season

In away games, São Paulo averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, the record between Vasco da Gama and São Paulo is even

Both teams have secured 2 wins each, with no draws recorded

The goal difference is also balanced at 7:7

The last encounter on November 2, 2025, saw São Paulo win 2-0 away

关键球员

For Vasco da Gama, Cuiabano (2 goals, 3 assists) and David (2 goals, 2 assists) are key offensive players

Cuiabano has shown stable form recently with 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 games

Thiago Mendes contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season and is in stable form

For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri is the top scorer with 6 season goals

He scored 3 goals in his last 5 games, but his form is declining

Sabino (1 goal) and Artur (1 assist) are other important players

Marcos Antônio (0 goals, 2 assists) is not nominated for São Paulo

门将

Vasco da Gama's goalkeeper, Léo Jardim, made 11 season appearances with 0 clean sheets

São Paulo's goalkeeper Rafael also played 11 times and recorded 3 clean sheets

影响因素

Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.5 goals per home game

At the same time, the team concedes an average of 1.33 goals in their own stadium

São Paulo scores an average of 1.25 goals in away matches

São Paulo's away defense concedes an average of 1.5 goals

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