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Serie A

Palmeiras - Athletico PR

04/19/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Palmeiras
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Athletico PR
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
PALAP

Palmeiras

防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.54
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.24
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.21
Marlon Freitas未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
Mauricio替补席 (1球, 1助攻)

Athletico PR

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍)
-0.54
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.33
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1球)
+0.13
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.07
Julimar替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Gastón Benavídez未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅79%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.6球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

32%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

68%

双方进球

43%

57%

关键因素
  • Palmeiras' impressive home strength: an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded
  • Palmeiras' current form with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games
  • Athletico PR's defensive weakness away from home with an average of 3.0 goals conceded per match
风险因素
  • Limited starting lineup strength for Palmeiras: Only 88% of the usual goal threat is available, as Marlon Freitas (2G/1A) and Mauricio (1G/1A) are not in the lineup
  • Reduced starting lineup strength for Athletico PR: Only 80% of the usual goal threat is available, as Julimar (3G/1A) and Gastón Benavídez (0G/3A) are not in the lineup
  • The pipeline prognosis analysis only predicts Palmeiras with a 47% chance of a home win and 32% for a draw
概述

Palmeiras (1st place, 26 points) host Athletico PR (6th place, 19 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 19, 2026, 11:30 PM

Palmeiras aims to consolidate their league lead, while Athletico PR seeks to stay connected to the top group

近期状态

Palmeiras shows excellent form with "WWWWD" from their last five games across all competitions

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 draw

Athletico PR, however, displays an inconsistent form of "WWLLW", with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.91 goals per game this season and concedes 0.91 goals

Their goal production has recently slowed slightly (1.8 goals per game compared to 2.1 season goals)

At home, the average is 2.0 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per game

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.55 times and concedes 1.18 goals per game

Athletico PR is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.6 goals per game)

Away, they average 1.67 goals scored and an alarming 3.0 goals conceded per match

Palmeiras had 3 clean sheets, Athletico PR also had 3

For Palmeiras, over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 games, for Athletico PR in 6 matches

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, the record between Palmeiras and Athletico PR is even

Both teams have won one match each

The goal difference is 2:2

The last encounter was won by Athletico PR at home with 2:0 on September 1, 2024

关键球员

For Palmeiras, Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 8 assists in season, 3 assists in last 5 games), José Manuel López (3 goals, 3 assists in season) and Jhon Arias (3 goals in season, 2 goals in last 5 games) are in the starting lineup

For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros (6 goals, 1 assist in season, 3 goals in last 5 games), Lucas Esquivel (1 goal, 3 assists in season) and Stiven Mendoza (4 goals in season, 1 goal in last 5 games) are in the squad

Dudu shows a rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

门将

Carlos Miguel is the goalkeeper for Palmeiras and achieved 3 clean sheets this season

For Athletico PR, Santos  is in goal, who also recorded 3 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Palmeiras benefits from a strong home record with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded per home game

Athletico PR, however, appears more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 3.0 goals

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