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Serie A

Flamengo - Bahia

04/19/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Flamengo
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Bahia
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
FLABAH

Flamengo

防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.55
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.21
16%进球产出缺失 (仅83%可用)
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)

Bahia

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.09
Everaldo替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

50%

平局

28%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

50%

非平局

72%

双方进球

53%

47%

关键因素
  • Flamengo is favored with a home win probability of approximately 50% according to the mathematical analysis, compared to Bahia's 23%
  • Flamengo's extremely strong home defense (Avg. 0.4 goals conceded) faces an offensively solid away team
  • Flamengo is in better form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) than Bahia (3 wins, 2 losses)
风险因素
  • Flamengo has several absentees, including J. Carrascal Guardo (Red Card Suspension), E. Pulgar Farfán (Suspended), and J. Frello Filho (Calf Injury)
概述

Flamengo (2nd place, 20 points) host Bahia (5th place, 20 points) in a Serie A match

The game is scheduled for April 19, 2026, 00:30 UTC

Both teams are tied on points at the top of the table, vying for a strong position

近期状态

Flamengo's form in their last five matches is WDLWW

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Their last fixture resulted in a win

Bahia's form in their last five matches is WLWLW

They registered 3 wins and 2 losses

Their most recent fixture also ended in a win

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Flamengo averages 1.8 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.0 goals

In home games, Flamengo is offensively strong with an average of 1.8 goals scored and defensively stable with 0.4 goals conceded

Bahia averages 1.5 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.0 goals

In away games, Bahia scores 1.4 goals and concedes 1.2 goals

Flamengo has seen over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches, Bahia in 5 of 10 matches

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Flamengo secured 3 wins and Bahia 1 win

Flamengo scored a total of 5 goals, while Bahia scored 2 goals

The home team recently dominated the head-to-head encounters

The last match on October 05, 2025, was won by Bahia away with a score of 1:0

关键球员

Flamengo features Pedro in attack, contributing 5 goals and 2 assists in 10 season appearances

Samuel Lino has shown his quality with 2 goals and 3 assists in 10 games

Lucas Paquetá scored 2 goals in 9 matches

For Bahia, Luciano Juba is the top scorer with 4 goals and 1 assist in 10 season appearances

Jean Lucas has 2 goals and 2 assists in 10 games

Willian José scored 2 goals in 9 matches

门将

Agustín Rossi, Flamengo's goalkeeper, has made 10 season appearances

Flamengo has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Léo Vieira, Bahia's goalkeeper, has made 3 season appearances

Bahia has kept 4 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Flamengo performs strongly at home, averaging 1.8 goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded

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