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Serie A

Chapecoense - Botafogo

04/18/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 4
预期进球
Chapecoense
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Botafogo
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
CHABOT

Chapecoense

防守不足 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
+0.44
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球)
-0.27
状态下滑 (0.2 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.26
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.24
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第11位, 相差8位)
-0.13
Walter Clar替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
52%进球产出缺失 (仅48%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.8球 vs 总体1.1球)

Botafogo

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.06
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.71倍)
-0.04
排名优势 (第11位 vs 第19位, 相差8位)
+0.04
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.01
Álvaro Montoro替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

29%

客胜

24%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

双重机会

主胜或平局

76%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

71%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • Chapecoense's offense is significantly weakened: Only 48% of the usual goal threat is available without Walter Clar
  • Stark contrast in form: Botafogo with 3 wins in their last 5 games, while Chapecoense remained winless
  • Mathematical analysis favors a home win with a probability of 47%
风险因素
  • Chapecoense averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Botafogo concedes an average of 2.8 goals per away game
概述

Chapecoense (19th place, 8 points) host Botafogo (11th place, 13 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 18, 2026, 6:30 PM

Chapecoense is in a relegation battle and desperately needs points

Botafogo aims to consolidate its position in the middle of the table

近期状态

Chapecoense recently showed poor form with a DLLDL sequence

This corresponds to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last five matches

Their last game ended in a loss

Botafogo presents itself in better form with WLWWD

This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from the last five encounters

Their last match ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Chapecoense scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded 1.8 goals

In home games, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.22 goals conceded

Botafogo averaged 1.8 goals scored per game and conceded 2.1 goals

Away from home, Botafogo scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 2.8 goals

Chapecoense kept 1 clean sheet, while Botafogo also kept 1 clean sheet

Both teams scored in 5 Chapecoense games and 7 Botafogo games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 Chapecoense games and 9 Botafogo games

The mathematical analysis predicts 1.53 goals for Chapecoense and 1.04 goals for Botafogo

历史交锋

The provided dataset does not contain any historical head-to-head matches between the teams

关键球员

Chapecoense: Higor Meritão (1 goal, 0 assists), Doma (1 goal, 0 assists), Everton (0 goals, 1 assist)

Botafogo: Danilo (6 goals, 1 assist), Arthur Cabral (3 goals, 1 assist), Alex Telles (2 goals, 0 assists)

Álvaro Montoro (0 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated

门将

Chapecoense goalkeeper Rafael Santos recorded 1 clean sheet so far

Botafogo goalkeeper Neto also achieved 1 clean sheet this season

影响因素

Chapecoense averages 1.0 goals in home games and concedes 1.22 goals

Botafogo averages 1.8 goals away from home and concedes 2.8 goals

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