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Serie A

Athletico PR - Vitória

04/26/2026, 09:30 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Athletico PR
1.4
Total xG
2.1
Vitória
0.7
最可能的比分

1:0

16%

0:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
APVIT

Athletico PR

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.39
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.73倍)
-0.28
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.07
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第12位, 相差6位)
+0.04
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.01
Julimar未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Dudu替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
23%进球产出缺失 (仅93%可用)

Vitória

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.54倍)
-0.86
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.50
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.09
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第6位, 相差6位)
-0.04
Baralhas 未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
Renato Kayzer未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
31%进球产出缺失 (仅57%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.1球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

53%

平局

31%

客胜

16%

进球数

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

双重机会

主胜或平局

84%

客胜或平局

47%

非平局

69%

双方进球

38%

62%

关键因素
  • Pipeline forecast: Mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Athletico PR with 53% probability
  • Athletico PR's home strength: The team scores an average of 1.5 goals at home and concedes only 0.5 goals
  • Vitória's away weakness: Vitória concedes an average of 4.0 goals per away game
风险因素
  • Vitória are missing key players such as Baralhas (2G/3A) and Renato Kayzer (2G/0A), leaving only 57% of their usual goal threat available
  • Vitória concedes an average of 4.0 goals per away game
概述

Athletico PR (6th place, 19 points) host Vitória (12th place, 15 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 26, 2026, 10:30 PM. Athletico PR aims to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table, while Vitória seeks to close the gap to the top ranks.

近期状态

Athletico PR's form in the last five games is WLLWL, consisting of 2 wins and 3 losses, with the last result being a loss. Vitória has a form of WLDWD in their last five matches, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. The last result was a draw.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.42 goals per game this season and concedes 1.17 goals. At home, Athletico PR is stronger offensively with an average of 1.5 goals per home game and a solid defense conceding only 0.5 goals. Vitória scores an average of 1.0 goal and concedes 1.27 goals per match this season. Away, Vitória's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per away game, while scoring 1.0 goal. Both teams scored in 6 of Athletico PR's games and in 4 of Vitória's games. Athletico PR consistently scores (~1.4 goals per game), while Vitória consistently scores (~1.0 goals per game).

历史交锋

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, both Athletico PR and Vitória secured one win each, with no draws. Both teams scored 2 goals each. The last encounter saw Vitória win away with a score of 1:2 on November 2, 2024.

关键球员

For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros (6 goals, 1 assist), Stiven Mendoza (4 goals, 0 assists), and Lucas Esquivel (1 goal, 3 assists) are key players in the starting lineup. For Vitória, Ramon (2 goals, 0 assists), Matheuzinho (2 goals, 0 assists), and Erick (1 goal, 2 assists) are crucial in the starting XI.

门将

Athletico PR's goalkeeper, Santos, has kept 3 clean sheets in 12 appearances this season. For Vitória, goalkeeper Lucas Arcanjo has recorded 5 clean sheets in 8 appearances.

影响因素

Athletico PR shows solid home strength with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded in home games. In contrast, Vitória exhibits significant away weakness, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 4.0 goals conceded in away games.

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