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Serie A

Corinthians - Vasco da Gama

04/26/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Corinthians
0.9
Total xG
1.9
Vasco da Gama
1.0
最可能的比分

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

12%

0:2

8%
xG 分解
CORVDG

Corinthians

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.52倍)
-1.11
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.51
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.34
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.15
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第10位, 相差7位)
-0.07
状态下滑 (0.7 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.07
25%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用)

Vasco da Gama

防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.44
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.38
排名优势 (第10位 vs 第17位, 相差7位)
+0.03
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.03
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.5球)
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

35%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

71%

非平局

65%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Vasco da Gama shows stronger offensive statistics, with an average of 1.5 goals per game compared to Corinthians' 0.67 goals
  • Corinthians is in poor form (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 games) and has a faltering goal production (0.7 recently)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 35% probability for a draw and a 35% probability for an away win for Vasco da Gama
风险因素
  • Corinthians score an average of only 0.67 goals per home game
  • Corinthians recorded an average of only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Corinthians will be without suspended goalkeeper H. de Souza Nogueira
概述

Corinthians (17th place, 12 points) host Vasco da Gama (10th place, 16 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 26, 2026, 8:00 PM

Corinthians are fighting against relegation, while Vasco is in the middle of the table

近期状态

Corinthians' home form across all competitions is DLLDD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

This corresponds to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in the last five games

Vasco da Gama shows better form with WDLDW in their last five games

That is 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

统计数据

Corinthians score an average of only 0.67 goals per game and concede 0.92 goals

At home, they score 0.67 goals and concede 1.0 goals per match

Vasco da Gama is stronger offensively with an average of 1.5 goals scored per game and 1.5 goals conceded

Away, Vasco scores 1.4 goals and concedes 1.8 goals per game

Corinthians' goal production is faltering (0.7 recently), season average is 0.9

Vasco da Gama scores consistently (~1.4 goals per game)

历史交锋

In the 4 head-to-head matches so far, Corinthians dominated with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Vasco da Gama

The goal difference is 9:5 in favor of Corinthians

Corinthians won the last encounter away with a 3:2 score on August 24, 2025

关键球员

For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 3 assists, Avg. 7.13 rating) and Gabriel Paulista (1 goal, Avg. 7.07 rating) are important players

Yuri Alberto scored 1 goal in 8 appearances and has scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Vasco da Gama, Cuiabano stands out (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.31 rating)

Thiago Mendes scored 2 goals and 1 assist and is in stable form (1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games)

Andrés Gómez (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.01 rating) scored 2 goals in the last 5 games

门将

Kauê is expected in goal for Corinthians

The team has kept 2 clean sheets this season

Vasco da Gama relies on Léo Jardim

The team has kept 0 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Corinthians scores an average of 0.67 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goals per game

Vasco da Gama scores 1.4 goals away and concedes 1.8 goals per game

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