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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo

04/26/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 4
预期进球
Atlético Mineiro
1.1
Total xG
2.4
Flamengo
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

0:1

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
xG 分解
AMFLA

Atlético Mineiro

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.6倍)
-0.63
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.30
防守不足 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.30
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第2位, 相差11位)
-0.14
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.01
Hulk 替补席 (1球, 3助攻)
Reinier替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
12%进球产出缺失 (仅72%可用)

Flamengo

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.19
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第13位, 相差11位)
+0.07
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.07
Lucas Paquetá未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

29%

平局

30%

客胜

41%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

双重机会

主胜或平局

59%

客胜或平局

71%

非平局

70%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • Favorites' role: Flamengo is second in the table with 23 points and boasts higher offensive efficiency (avg 1.82 goals per game)
  • Current form: Flamengo is on a 3-game winning streak, while Atlético Mineiro has suffered 2 consecutive losses
  • Mathematical prediction: The analysis favors Flamengo with a win probability of 41%
风险因素
  • Draw probability: The mathematical model calculates a high draw probability of 30%
  • Both teams to score: The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model
  • Flamengo's away defense: Flamengo concedes an average of 1.6 goals per away game, which is above their season average
概述

Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 14 points) hosts Flamengo (2nd place, 23 points) in a Serie A match on April 26, 2026, 8:30 PM. Flamengo aims to solidify its position near the top of the league, while Atlético Mineiro seeks to move away from the relegation zone

近期状态

Atlético Mineiro's recent form is LWWLL, with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. The team has suffered 2 consecutive losses

Flamengo, on the other hand, is in good form with DLWWW, comprising 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. Flamengo has won their last 3 consecutive matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Atlético Mineiro averages 1.17 goals scored per game and concedes 1.25 goals. In home games, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Flamengo is stronger offensively, averaging 1.82 goals per match with a solid defense conceding 0.91 goals. Away from home, Flamengo scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 1.6 goals

Atlético Mineiro kept 3 clean sheets, while Flamengo achieved 4

Both teams scored in 4 of Atlético Mineiro's games and 6 of Flamengo's games

Overall, there were more than 2.5 goals in 5 of Atlético Mineiro's matches and 7 of Flamengo's matches

历史交锋

In the 4 head-to-head encounters between these two teams, Atlético Mineiro has yet to secure a win. Flamengo won 2 matches, and 2 ended in a draw

Flamengo scored 6 goals in these meetings, while Atlético Mineiro scored 3 goals

The last match on November 26, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Historically, Flamengo dominates this fixture

关键球员

For Atlético Mineiro, Victor Hugo with 3 goals and 1 assist and a season rating of 7.06, and Tomás Cuello with 2 goals and 1 assist and a season rating of 6.95, are key players

Bernard contributed 1 goal in 9 season appearances and has a season rating of 6.53

Not nominated: Hulk (1 Goal, 3 Assists), Reinier (1 Goal, 1 Assist)

For Flamengo, Pedro stands out with 5 goals and 3 assists and a season rating of 7.21. Giorgian de Arrascaeta recorded 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.26

Samuel Lino was involved in 2 goals and 3 assists with a season rating of 6.91

Not nominated: Lucas Paquetá (3 Goals, 0 Assists)

门将

Everson, Atlético Mineiro's goalkeeper, recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Agustín Rossi, Flamengo's goalkeeper, managed to keep a clean sheet in 4 matches

影响因素

Atlético Mineiro scored an average of 1.12 goals in home games and conceded 0.75 goals

Flamengo scored an average of 1.8 goals in away games and conceded 1.6 goals

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