🇧🇷

Serie A

São Paulo - Mirassol

04/26/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 0
预期进球
São Paulo
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Mirassol
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
SPMIR

São Paulo

防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.64
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.14
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第18位, 相差14位)
+0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.04
Marcos Antônio未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)

Mirassol

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.17
排名劣势 (第18位 vs 第4位, 相差14位)
-0.14
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.05
Negueba未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

29%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

71%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • São Paulo is favored to win the match with a mathematical probability of 51%
  • São Paulo's home strength is defensively impressive, conceding an average of only 0.38 goals per home game
  • Mirassol's goal production is stagnant, averaging 1.0 goals in recent matches, while the season average is 1.2
风险因素
  • São Paulo averaged 3.4 shots on target in the last 5 matches
  • Limited data available for duels won in recent matches
概述

São Paulo (4th place, 20 points) host Mirassol (18th place, 9 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 26, 2026, 12:00 AM. São Paulo aims to solidify its position in the upper standings, while Mirassol battles against relegation

近期状态

São Paulo's form is LDWLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) in their last 5 matches across all competitions. The last game resulted in a loss, and there were two consecutive losses at the end of the previous sequence. Mirassol's form is LLLLW (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses) from their last 5 matches across all competitions. The last game was a win, ending a streak of losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

São Paulo has scored an average of 1.33 goals per game this season and conceded 0.92 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets. Mirassol has scored an average of 1.18 goals and conceded 1.55 goals per game and has yet to keep a clean sheet this season. São Paulo scored an average of 1.25 goals at home and conceded only 0.38 goals, with 2 clean sheets. Mirassol scored 1.2 goals per away game and conceded 1.6 goals

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, São Paulo has no wins, while Mirassol has won both encounters. The goal difference is 0:5 in favor of Mirassol. The last meeting on October 19, 2025, ended with a 0:3 away victory for Mirassol. Mirassol has been recently dominant in direct clashes

关键球员

For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri  is a key attacker with 6 season goals and 2 goals in his last 5 appearances. Luciano contributed 3 goals and 1 assist this season, with 1 goal in his last 5 matches. Danielzinho added 1 goal and 1 assist. For Mirassol, Alesson shines with 4 assists this season, 2 of which came in his last 5 games. Igor Formiga has scored 3 goals this season, including 1 in his last 5 appearances. Shaylon scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist this season, with 1 goal in his last 5 matches

门将

Rafael is in goal for São Paulo, with an average rating of 6.78 in 12 appearances and contributing to 3 clean sheets for his team. Mirassol's goalkeeper is Walter, who has an average rating of 6.93 in 11 appearances and has not achieved any clean sheets this season

影响因素

São Paulo benefits from a strong home advantage. The home team scored an average of 1.25 goals per game at home and conceded only 0.38 goals. The provided dataset does not contain information on weather influences or specific venue histories

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。