🇧🇷

Serie A

Bahia - Santos

04/25/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Bahia
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Santos
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
BAHSAN

Bahia

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.09
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第15位, 相差10位)
+0.07
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.01
Everaldo替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Everton Ribeiro  替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅83%可用)

Santos

最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第5位, 相差10位)
-0.10
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.07
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.07
Neymar 未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻)
Álvaro Barreal替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
71%进球产出缺失 (仅34%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.4球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

50%

平局

29%

客胜

21%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

79%

客胜或平局

50%

非平局

71%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Critical weakening for Santos: Only 34% of the usual goal threat is active, with Neymar (3G/2A) and Álvaro Barreal (2G/0A) among those missing
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bahia with a 50% probability and 1.50 expected home goals
  • Bahia has been dominant in possession in their last 5 games with an average of 5.4 shots on target, while Santos recorded few attempts with 2.4 shots per game
风险因素
  • Santos concedes an average of 2.75 goals per away game
  • Santos recorded an average of only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches
概述

Bahia (5th place, 20 points) host Santos (15th place, 13 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 25, 2026, 10:30 PM

Bahia aims to improve its position in the upper half of the table

Santos wants to stay away from the relegation battle

近期状态

Bahia's form in their last five matches is 'LWLWL'

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses

Santos' form in their last five matches is 'DWLWL'

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses for Santos

Both teams lost their last respective match

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Bahia scores an average of 1.36 goals and concedes 1.09 goals per game

In home games, the average is 1.33 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded

Bahia kept 4 clean sheets, 2 of them at home

In 6 of Bahia's matches, both teams scored, 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Santos scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 1.58 goals per game

Away from home, the average is 1.5 goals scored but a high 2.75 goals conceded

Santos kept 3 clean sheets, 1 of them away

In 9 of Santos' matches, both teams scored, 7 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, Bahia has achieved 1 win and 1 draw

Santos has not secured a victory yet

Bahia scored a total of 4 goals and conceded 2 goals

Bahia won the last encounter on August 24, 2025, with a score of 2:0

Bahia has shown dominance in recent direct duels

关键球员

For Bahia, Luciano Juba (4 goals, 1 assist, Ø 7.23 rating), Jean Lucas (2 goals, 2 assists, Ø 6.92 rating) and Willian José (2 goals, 1 assist, Ø 6.65 rating) are important players

For Santos, Thaciano (2 goals), Gonzalo Escobar (1 assist) and Christian Oliva (1 assist) are notable

门将

Bahia's goalkeeper Léo Vieira has made 4 appearances this season and achieved an average rating of 7.36

Bahia has kept 4 clean sheets this season, 2 of them in home games

Santos' goalkeeper Diógenes has not made any appearances this season

Santos has recorded 3 clean sheets, 1 of them away from home

影响因素

Bahia shows strong defensive performance at home, conceding only an average of 0.67 goals per home game

Santos, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.75 goals per away game

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。