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Serie A

Athletico PR - Grêmio

05/02/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
预期进球
Athletico PR
1.5
Total xG
2.1
Grêmio
0.6
最可能的比分

1:0

17%

0:0

14%

2:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
APGRÊ

Athletico PR

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.39
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.10
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.10
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.05
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第11位, 相差6位)
+0.04
Luiz Gustavo未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
Dudu替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
26%进球产出缺失 (仅92%可用)

Grêmio

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.52倍)
-0.85
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.46
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.29
状态下滑 (0.7 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.21
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第5位, 相差6位)
-0.04
Carlos Vinícius未进大名单 (7球, 0助攻)
Francis Amuzu未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
Erick Noriega替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
79%进球产出缺失 (仅47%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.4球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

55%

平局

30%

客胜

15%

进球数

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

双重机会

主胜或平局

85%

客胜或平局

45%

非平局

70%

双方进球

37%

63%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis sees Athletico PR as favorites with 55%
  • Grêmio plays with only 47% of their usual starting lineup strength, with key players like Carlos Vinícius (7G/0A), Francis Amuzu (1G/2A), Erick Noriega (1G/1A) missing
  • Athletico PR shows strong offensive and stable defensive performance at home (1.5 goals scored, 0.5 goals conceded)
风险因素
  • Grêmio averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games (average)
  • Grêmio concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away game
  • Grêmio's goal production is stalling (0.7 goals in last 5 games), season average is 1.4 goals
概述

Athletico PR (5th place, 22 points) host Grêmio (11th place, 16 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 2, 2026, 8:30 PM. Athletico PR aims to consolidate its position in the top third of the table, while Grêmio seeks to increase its distance from the relegation spots.

近期状态

Athletico PR's form across all competitions is LLWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). In their last 5 games, they recorded 2 wins and 3 losses, with the most recent result being a 3-1 win against Vitória. Grêmio shows a form of LDDLW in all competitions. They achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, with their last game being a 1-0 win against Coritiba.

统计数据

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.54 goals per game and concedes 1.15 goals. At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded. They kept 3 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches. Grêmio scores an average of 1.15 goals per game and concedes 1.23 goals. Away from home, they concede an average of 3.67 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches.

历史交锋

In the 2 head-to-head matches between Athletico PR and Grêmio, there have been no home wins, with Grêmio winning both encounters. Grêmio scored 4 goals in these matches, while Athletico PR failed to score. The last meeting on August 4, 2024, ended in a 2-0 victory for Grêmio.

关键球员

For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros stands out with 8 goals and 1 assist, Lucas Esquivel with 1 goal and 3 assists, and Stiven Mendoza with 4 goals. For Grêmio, Cristian Pavón with an average rating of 7.08, goalkeeper Weverton with 1 assist and an average rating of 6.98, and Gustavo Martins with 2 assists and an average rating of 6.79 are the most relevant players.

门将

Santos, Athletico PR's goalkeeper, played in 13 games and kept 3 clean sheets. Weverton, Grêmio's goalkeeper, also played 13 games and kept 4 clean sheets.

影响因素

Athletico PR performs well at home, averaging 1.5 goals per home game and conceding only 0.5 goals. No data on venue history or weather conditions is available to influence the analysis.

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