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Serie A

Internacional - Fluminense

05/03/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Internacional
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Fluminense
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
INTFLU

Internacional

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.37
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第3位, 相差14位)
-0.19
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.18
状态上升 (1.2 vs 1 赛季平均)
+0.07
Vitinho替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Alan Patrick 替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Rafael Borré替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
19%进球产出缺失 (仅66%可用)
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
主场表现强势 (场均1.8球 vs 总体1球)

Fluminense

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.15
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.15
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第17位, 相差14位)
+0.07
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.07
Jefferson Savarino替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
Rodrigo Castillo替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Hércules替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Guga替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅61%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

34%

平局

32%

客胜

34%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

66%

客胜或平局

66%

非平局

68%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • Fluminense's offensive strength: They are currently scoring more often (2.0) than their season average (1.8) and average 1.67 goals per away game
  • Internacional's defensive home weakness: An average of 1.6 goals conceded in home games indicates vulnerability
  • Historical record: Fluminense dominated recent head-to-head encounters and won the last match
风险因素
  • Internacional is missing key goal scorers and playmakers (Vitinho, Alan Patrick , Rafael Borré), as only 66% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available
  • Fluminense has to play without several key players (Jefferson Savarino, Rodrigo Castillo, Hércules, Guga), which is reflected in a reduced 62% goal threat from the starting XI
概述

Internacional (17th place, 14 points) hosts Fluminense (3rd place, 26 points) in a Serie A match

The game is scheduled for May 3, 2026, at 10:30 PM

Fluminense aims to close the gap to the top of the table, while Internacional fights to avoid relegation

近期状态

Internacional's form in their last five matches is 'DWDLD'

This includes 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Their last performance was a 2-2 away draw against Botafogo

Fluminense, on the other hand, shows a form of 'WDLWW'

They have achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Fluminense recently secured a 2-1 home win against Chapecoense and has a run of 2 consecutive wins

Fluminense currently appears to be in better form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Internacional averages 0.92 goals scored per game and concedes 1.08 goals

In home games, they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 7 of Internacional's 13 matches (54%)

Fluminense is more offensively potent with an average of 1.77 goals scored per game and 1.23 goals conceded

Away from home, Fluminense scores 1.67 goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals

Both teams scored in 10 of Fluminense's 13 matches (77%)

The pipeline analysis predicts 1.14 expected home goals for Internacional and 1.13 expected away goals for Fluminense

历史交锋

In the 4 previous head-to-head encounters, Internacional secured 1 win

Fluminense won 2 matches, and 1 game ended in a draw

The goal difference in these matches is 3:4 in favor of Fluminense

The last meeting on October 25, 2025, saw Fluminense win 1-0 away

Overall, the record shows a slight dominance by Fluminense in recent matchups

关键球员

For Internacional, Johan Carbonero (Attacker) is a key player with 2 season goals and 1 assist, including 1 goal in the last 5 games

Alexandro Bernabei (Defender) also contributed 2 season goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games

Alerrandro (Attacker) showed rising form with 1 season goal and 1 assist, including 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances

For Fluminense, John Kennedy (Attacker) stands out with 6 season goals and 3 goals in his last 5 games

Agustín Canobbio (Attacker) has 3 season goals and 1 assist

Guilherme Arana (Defender) is also notable with 1 season goal

门将

Anthoni is in goal for Internacional, having played 3 matches so far this season

Internacional's team has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Fábio guards the goal for Fluminense, with 13 appearances this season

Fluminense's team has also recorded 3 clean sheets

影响因素

Internacional averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded in home games

Fluminense averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded in away games

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