Serie A
Flamengo - Vasco da Gama
05/03/2026, 07:00 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.3
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
12%2:0
10%2:1
9%xG 分解
Flamengo
Vasco da Gama
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
47%
平局
31%
客胜
23%
进球数
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
双重机会
主胜或平局
77%
客胜或平局
53%
非平局
69%
双方进球
是
46%
否
54%
关键因素
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Flamengo with 47% probability
- Flamengo's current form with 4 wins in the last 5 games significantly outperforms Vasco da Gama's DLDWL streak
- Flamengo's home strength with an average of 2.20 goals scored and only 0.40 goals conceded contrasts with Vasco da Gama's away weakness of 2.00 goals conceded per game
风险因素
- Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game
- Vasco da Gama's recent goal production is an average of 1.0 goals per game, below the season average of 1.4 goals
概述
Flamengo (2nd place, 26 points) host Vasco da Gama (13th place, 16 points) in a Serie A match on May 3, 2026, 7:00 PM. The home team aims to close the gap to the top of the table, while the visitors seek to distance themselves from the relegation zone
近期状态
Flamengo shows strong form with LWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from their last five matches, including four wins and one loss. They are on a four-game winning streak. Vasco da Gama's form is weaker with DLDWL (one win, two draws, two losses). Their last match was a loss
统计数据
Flamengo scores an average of 2.00 goals per game and concedes 0.83 goals. At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 2.20 goals scored and only 0.40 goals conceded. They have kept five clean sheets. Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.38 goals per game and concedes 1.46 goals. Away from home, they concede an average of 2.00 goals and have not kept any clean sheets. Both teams scored in eleven of Vasco da Gama's matches
历史交锋
In four head-to-head matches, Flamengo has one win, Vasco da Gama has no wins, and there have been three draws. Flamengo scored eight goals, while Vasco da Gama scored three. The last match on September 21, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. The home team has dominated recent encounters
关键球员
Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 7 goals and 3 assists, holding an average rating of 7.29, and is in rising form. Samuel Lino contributed 2 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 6.98, also in rising form. Gonzalo Plata has scored 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.14. For Vasco da Gama, José Luis Rodríguez is an important player with 2 goals and 3 assists and an average rating of 7.2, showing rising form. David contributed 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.89. Thiago Mendes has 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.21
门将
Agustín Rossi of Flamengo has an average rating of 7.08 this season and has kept 5 clean sheets in 12 appearances. Léo Jardim of Vasco da Gama has a rating of 6.70 in 13 appearances and has not managed a clean sheet yet
影响因素
Flamengo has scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded only 0.40 goals at home, suggesting a strong home advantage. Vasco da Gama, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability