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Serie A

Mirassol - Corinthians

05/03/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Mirassol
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Corinthians
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
xG 分解
MIRCOR

Mirassol

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.34
防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.04
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.02
37%进球产出缺失 (仅80%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.1球)

Corinthians

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.4倍)
-0.46
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.20
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.15
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
状态下滑 (0.7 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.07
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.01
33%进球产出缺失 (仅66%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.4球 vs 总体0.9球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

43%

平局

33%

客胜

24%

进球数

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

双重机会

主胜或平局

76%

客胜或平局

57%

非平局

67%

双方进球

41%

59%

关键因素
  • Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis shows a home win for Mirassol with 43% probability
  • Corinthians' offense: The team averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Form: Mirassol has suffered 4 defeats in their last five games, while Corinthians recently drew and won
风险因素
  • Corinthians has only 67% of usual goal production available due to absences
  • Mirassol has kept 0 clean sheets in 0 season games
  • Corinthians averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述

Mirassol (19th place, 9 points) host Corinthians (15th place, 15 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 4, 2026, 12:30 AM. Mirassol is deep in the relegation battle, while Corinthians is in the middle of the table.

近期状态

The form of both teams appears to be difficult. Mirassol has a form of LLLWL across all competitions with 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses from their last five matches. Their last game was a 0-1 away loss against São Paulo.

Corinthians shows a form of LLDDW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last match was a 1-0 home win against Vasco da Gama.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Mirassol averages 1.08 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.5 goals. In home games, the average is 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded.

Corinthians appears defensively stronger, averaging 0.69 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they averaged 0.67 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded.

Mirassol kept 0 clean sheets, while Corinthians kept 6 clean sheets this season.

Mirassol had both teams score (BTTS) in 7 matches, Corinthians in 5 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of Mirassol's matches and 2 of Corinthians' matches.

历史交锋

In the previous 2 head-to-head matches, both Mirassol and Corinthians have 1 win each. The goal difference is 2:4 in favor of Corinthians. Corinthians won the last encounter away on October 5, 2025, with a 3-0 score. The recent record is even.

关键球员

For Mirassol, the standout players are: Igor Formiga (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.02 rating), Shaylon (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 6.72 rating), and Alesson (0 goals, 4 assists, avg 6.87 rating).

For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 4 assists, avg 7.19 rating), Matheus Bidu (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.07 rating), and Gabriel Paulista (1 goal, 0 assists, avg 7.08 rating) are the key players.

门将

Walter is Mirassol's goalkeeper, who has played in 12 games and has an average rating of 6.90. Mirassol recorded 0 clean sheets this season.

Hugo Souza is Corinthians' goalkeeper, with 11 appearances and an average rating of 6.91. Corinthians achieved 6 clean sheets this season.

影响因素

Mirassol scored an average of 1.17 goals at home and conceded 1.5 goals. Corinthians scored an average of 0.67 goals away and conceded 0.83 goals. No data on weather-related influences is available.

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