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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro

05/03/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 3
预期进球
Cruzeiro
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Atlético Mineiro
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
CRUAM

Cruzeiro

防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.21
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.11
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.11
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.07

Atlético Mineiro

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.19
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.04
Victor Hugo替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Hulk 未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
Tomás Cuello未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
Reinier替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
75%进球产出缺失 (仅39%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

31%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

69%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • Critical absences for Atlético Mineiro: Only 39% of usual goal production is available without Victor Hugo (3G/1A), Hulk  (1G/3A), Tomás Cuello (2G/1A), Reinier (1G/1A)
  • Strong form of Cruzeiro with three consecutive wins compared to Atlético Mineiro's series of three losses
  • Cruzeiro's solid home defense (0.78 goals conceded per game) meets Atlético Mineiro's vulnerable away defense (1.8 goals conceded per game)
风险因素
  • Historical record shows Atlético Mineiro has been dominant in head-to-head matches (recentDominant: "away")
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a low probability of over 2.5 goals at only 40%
概述

Cruzeiro (12th place, 16 points) host Atlético Mineiro (15th place, 14 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 2, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams are in the mid-table, with Cruzeiro holding a slight lead going into the clash

近期状态

Cruzeiro is in strong form with three consecutive wins (WLWWW)

In their last five matches, Cruzeiro recorded 4 wins and 1 loss

The home team won their last game against Remo with a 1-0 score

Atlético Mineiro is going through a difficult period with three consecutive losses (WWLLL)

The away team registered 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches

Atlético Mineiro lost their last game against Flamengo with a 0-4 score

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Cruzeiro scores an average of 1.31 goals per game and concedes 1.62 goals per game this season

At home, Cruzeiro is defensively solid, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding only 0.78 goals per home game

The team kept 4 clean sheets in season games and 3 in home games

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.08 goals per game and concedes 1.46 goals per game

Away from home, Atlético Mineiro concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game

The team kept 3 clean sheets in season games and 1 in away games

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches between Cruzeiro and Atlético Mineiro, Cruzeiro has not won a home game

Atlético Mineiro won 2 direct encounters, with 2 ending in a draw

The goal difference of 5:1 goals favors Atlético Mineiro

The last meeting on October 16, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

关键球员

For Cruzeiro, Christian is an important midfielder with 5 goals and 1 assist this season and rising form

Matheus Pereira, also in midfield, shines with 2 goals and 2 assists and an average rating of 7.35

Keny Arroyo in attack contributed 1 goal and 2 assists and shows an upward trend in form

For Atlético Mineiro, Ruan in defense is active with 1 season goal

Forward Bernard contributed 1 season goal, with 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

Defender Natanael provided 2 assists this season, with 1 in his last 5 games

门将

Otávio Costa is expected in goal for Cruzeiro, having no appearances this season

Cruzeiro has recorded 4 clean sheets this season, with 3 at home

Everson is in goal for Atlético Mineiro, with 13 season appearances, 1 assist, and an average rating of 6.91

Atlético Mineiro kept a clean sheet in 3 season games and 1 away game

影响因素

Cruzeiro shows a good defensive performance at home, conceding an average of 0.78 goals per game

Atlético Mineiro concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away match

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