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Serie A

São Paulo - Bahia

05/03/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
São Paulo
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Bahia
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
xG 分解
SPBAH

São Paulo

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.69
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.21
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.03
Marcos Antônio未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)

Bahia

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.18
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.05
Everaldo替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.4球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

28%

客胜

21%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

79%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

72%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for São Paulo with a probability of 51%
  • Bahia showed strong offensive play in the last 5 games with an average of 5.8 shots on target
  • São Paulo has a robust home defense, conceding an average of only 0.38 goals per home game
概述

São Paulo (4th place, 23 points) host Bahia (6th place, 21 points) in a Serie A match on May 3, 2026, 7:00 PM

São Paulo aims to solidify their position in the upper ranks of the table

Bahia seeks to close the gap on the top teams

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

São Paulo's form across all competitions: DWLLW

In their last 5 matches, São Paulo recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last result was a win, giving the team a winning streak of 1 game

Bahia's form across all competitions: WLWLD

Bahia achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

The last result was a draw, giving the team a drawing streak of 1 game

统计数据

São Paulo has scored an average of 1.31 goals per game and conceded an average of 0.85 goals this season

At home, São Paulo scored an average of 1.38 goals and conceded an average of 0.38 goals

Both teams failed to score in 6 matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches

Bahia has scored an average of 1.42 goals per game and conceded an average of 1.17 goals this season

Away from home, Bahia scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded an average of 1.60 goals

Both teams scored in 7 matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches

历史交锋

There have been a total of 4 head-to-head matches between São Paulo and Bahia

São Paulo won 3 of these matches, while Bahia won 1

There were no draws between the two teams

São Paulo scored 9 goals, while Bahia scored 3 goals

The last encounter on October 26, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for São Paulo

São Paulo has been dominant in recent encounters

关键球员

The key players for São Paulo are:

Jonathan Calleri (Attacker) with 6 goals and 0 assists, average rating 6.96, with a declining form trend recently

Luciano (Attacker) with 4 goals and 1 assist, average rating 7.12, with a stable form trend recently

Wendell (Defender) with 0 goals and 2 assists, average rating 6.76, with a stable form trend recently

Not nominated: Marcos Antônio (0 goals, 2 assists)

The key players for Bahia are:

Luciano Juba (Defender) with 5 goals and 1 assist, average rating 7.26, with a stable form trend recently

Willian José (Attacker) with 3 goals and 1 assist, average rating 6.74, with a stable form trend recently

Jean Lucas (Midfielder) with 2 goals and 2 assists, average rating 6.90, with a stable form trend recently

Not nominated: Everaldo (3 goals, 0 assists)

门将

São Paulo's goalkeeper is Rafael, who played in 13 matches and kept 4 clean sheets

Bahia's goalkeeper is Léo Vieira, who played in 5 matches and kept 4 clean sheets

影响因素

São Paulo demonstrates a strong home performance with an average of 1.38 goals scored and only 0.38 goals conceded per home game

Bahia, on the other hand, concedes an average of 1.60 goals per away game

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