🇧🇷

Serie A

Palmeiras - Santos

05/02/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Palmeiras
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Santos
0.8
最可能的比分

1:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
PALSAN

Palmeiras

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.71
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.22
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
状态下滑 (1.5 vs 1.9 赛季平均)
-0.13
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.12
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第17位, 相差16位)
+0.10
Allan替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Ramón Sosa替补席 (1球, 1助攻)

Santos

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.20
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第1位, 相差16位)
-0.14
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.03
Neymar 未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻)
Thaciano未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

30%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

70%

双方进球

43%

57%

关键因素
  • Palmeiras' strong home performance (1.86 goals scored, 0.57 goals conceded) faces Santos' weak away defense (2.17 goals conceded)
  • Palmeiras shows excellent form (4 wins in 5 games), while Santos' form (2 losses in 5 games) is considered unstable
  • The clear league positions (Palmeiras 1st place, Santos 17th place) support the favorite role, backed by a 51% home win probability
风险因素
  • Santos concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away game
  • Santos averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述

Palmeiras (1st place, 32 points) host Santos (17th place, 14 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 2, 2026, 10:30 PM

Palmeiras is currently the league leader and aims to consolidate their top position

Santos is in a relegation battle and desperately needs points

近期状态

Palmeiras shows strong form with WWDWW in their last 5 games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses

Palmeiras won their last two games consecutively

Santos' form is more unstable with WLWLD in their last 5 games

This represents 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

In their last match, Santos achieved a draw after a loss

Palmeiras recently won 1-0 away against Bragantino and 1-0 at home against Athletico PR

Santos drew 2-2 away against Bahia and lost 2-3 at home against Fluminense

统计数据

Palmeiras averages 1.77 goals per game and concedes 0.77 goals

At home, these values are even better: 1.86 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded per home game

Santos averages 1.38 goals per game and concedes 1.62 goals

Away from home, Santos concedes an average of 2.17 goals while scoring 1.33 goals

Palmeiras recorded 5 clean sheets and had 8 games where both teams scored

Santos achieved 3 clean sheets and had 10 games where both teams scored

Palmeiras' goal production has recently stalled (1.5 goals), compared to a season average of 1.9 goals

Santos scores consistently at approximately 1.6 goals per game

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, there has been one win for Palmeiras and one for Santos respectively

Palmeiras scored 2 goals, Santos scored 1 goal

Santos won the last encounter 1-0 away on November 16, 2025

Previously, Palmeiras won 2-0 at home on November 7, 2025

The record of recent duels is even

关键球员

Key players for Palmeiras include Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 9 assists), José Manuel López (4 goals, 3 assists), and Marlon Freitas (2 goals, 1 assist)

Marlon Freitas has shown strong form in the last 5 games with 2 goals

For Santos, Gabriel Barbosa (4 goals, 2 assists), Benjamín Rollheiser (2 goals), and Álvaro Barreal (2 goals) stand out

Gabriel Barbosa delivered 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games

Benjamín Rollheiser scored 2 goals in his last 3 games, his form is rising

Not selected for Palmeiras are Allan (3G/0A) and Ramón Sosa (1G/1A)

Not selected for Santos are Neymar (3G/2A) and Thaciano (2G/0A)

门将

Palmeiras' goalkeeper Carlos Miguel made 13 season appearances and kept 5 clean sheets

Santos' goalkeeper Gabriel Brazão played in 12 games and achieved 3 clean sheets

影响因素

Palmeiras benefits from a clear home advantage with an average of 1.86 home goals scored and only 0.57 home goals conceded

The mathematical analysis calculates a home win probability of 51%

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。