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Serie A

Bahia - Cruzeiro

05/10/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 2
预期进球
Bahia
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Cruzeiro
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
BAHCRU

Bahia

防守不足 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.32
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.15
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第15位, 相差9位)
+0.06
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.02
Cristian Olivera替补席 (1球, 1助攻)

Cruzeiro

排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第6位, 相差9位)
-0.11
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.06
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.01
Christian替补席 (5球, 1助攻)
Kaio Jorge 替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Keny Arroyo未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
Kaiki未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
39%进球产出缺失 (仅63%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.4球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

44%

平局

30%

客胜

26%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

74%

客胜或平局

56%

非平局

70%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 44% for Bahia and a 74% probability for a home win or a draw.
  • Bahia boasts a solid home defense, conceding an average of only 0.86 goals per home game.
  • Cruzeiro exhibits an extremely weak away defense, allowing an average of 3.50 goals per away game.
风险因素
  • Cruzeiro has only 63% of their usual starting eleven's offensive strength available due to the absence of Christian (5G/1A), Kaio Jorge (3G/0A), Keny Arroyo (1G/2A), and Kaiki (0G/2A).
  • Bahia's recent form is inconsistent with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches.
  • In head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro has been dominant recently, winning two of the four previous encounters.
概述

Bahia (6th place, 22 points) hosts Cruzeiro (15th place, 16 points) in a Serie A match on May 10, 2026, 1:00 AM. Bahia aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Cruzeiro needs crucial points in their fight against relegation.

近期状态

Bahia's form in their last five matches is LWLDD, with one win, two draws, and two losses. Their last game ended in a draw. Cruzeiro shows a form of LWWWL, with three wins and two losses. Their last game was a loss. Bahia has achieved one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Cruzeiro has recorded three wins and two losses in their last five games.

统计数据

Bahia averages 1.46 goals scored per game and concedes 1.23 goals per game this season. At home, the average is 1.43 goals scored and only 0.86 goals conceded. Bahia has kept four clean sheets this season. Cruzeiro averages 1.29 goals scored per game and concedes 1.71 goals per game. Their away record is significantly weaker with 1.25 goals scored and 3.50 goals conceded per away game. Cruzeiro also recorded four clean sheets. Venue data does not allow for a statement on the general game character.

历史交锋

In four head-to-head encounters, Bahia has one win, Cruzeiro has two wins, and there has been one draw. Bahia scored a total of 6 goals, while Cruzeiro scored 7 goals. The last match on September 15, 2025, ended in a 1:2 away win for Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro has been the more dominant side in recent direct matchups.

关键球员

For Bahia, Luciano Juba (Defender) with 6 goals and 1 assist, Mateo Sanabria (Attacker) with 1 goal and 1 assist, and Erick (Midfielder) with 2 goals are key players. Luciano Juba has a stable form trend with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Mateo Sanabria and Erick show a rising form trend, with Sanabria scoring 1 goal in just 82 minutes and Erick scoring 1 goal in 123 minutes in their last 5 games. For Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira (Midfielder) with 2 goals and 2 assists, Néiser Villarreal (Attacker) with 3 goals, and Lucas Romero (Midfielder) with 1 goal and 2 assists are notable. Matheus Pereira and Lucas Romero have a stable form trend, and Néiser Villarreal also shows stable form.

门将

Bahia's goalkeeper, Léo Vieira, had an average rating of 7.4 in six appearances. Bahia has kept two home clean sheets this season. For Cruzeiro, Otávio Costa is expected, who has an average rating of 6.07 in one appearance. Cruzeiro kept one clean sheet in an away game.

影响因素

Bahia displays a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.86 goals per game. The home team has scored an average of 1.43 goals per home game. Cruzeiro, on the other hand, is very vulnerable defensively away from home, conceding an average of 3.50 goals per away game. No data is available for weather-related or stadium-specific influences.

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