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Serie A

Grêmio - Flamengo

05/10/2026, 10:30 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Grêmio
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Flamengo
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:2

9%

1:0

8%
xG 分解
GRÊFLA

Grêmio

最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球)
-0.35
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.26
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第2位, 相差13位)
-0.17
最近5场中4场零封
-0.15
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.12
Juan Nardoni未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
José Enamorado替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Flamengo

最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.18
状态上升 (2.6 vs 2 赛季平均)
+0.18
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第15位, 相差13位)
+0.08
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.05
Giorgian de Arrascaeta未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.3球 vs 总体2球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

31%

平局

30%

客胜

39%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

61%

客胜或平局

69%

非平局

70%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win probability of 39% for Flamengo
  • Flamengo's form is positive with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last five matches
  • Flamengo's offense averaged 6.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
风险因素
  • Grêmio's home defense is very stable, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per game
  • Grêmio's current goal production has sharply declined, averaging 0.5 goals recently
概述

Grêmio (15th place, 17 points) hosts Flamengo (2nd place, 27 points) in a Serie A match on May 10, 2026, 7:30 PM

Flamengo is fighting for the top spot and aims to close the gap on league leader Palmeiras

Grêmio is closer to the relegation zone and needs points to move away from the bottom ranks

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Grêmio has shown the form DDLWD in their last five matches

This means 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss for the home team

Flamengo's form in their last five matches is WWWWD

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 draw for the visitors

Grêmio's goal production is currently stagnant with an average of 0.5 goals, compared to their season average of 1.4 goals

Flamengo is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.6 goals, their season average is 2.0 goals

统计数据

Grêmio scores an average of 1.07 goals per game and concedes 1.14 goals

At home, Grêmio's goal average is 1.1 goals, while goals conceded are only 0.5 per home game

Flamengo is offensively strong with an average of 2.0 goals per game

Flamengo's defense concedes an average of 0.92 goals per game

Away from home, Flamengo scores an average of 1.86 goals and concedes 1.14 goals

Both teams scored in 7 Grêmio games and 7 Flamengo games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 Grêmio games and 9 Flamengo games

历史交锋

There have been 4 direct encounters between Grêmio and Flamengo so far

Grêmio won 1 match, Flamengo won 2, and 1 game ended in a draw

The goal difference is 5:7 in favor of Flamengo

The last direct encounter on August 31, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

Flamengo has been the more dominant team in recent meetings

关键球员

Carlos Vinícius is an important attacker for Grêmio with 7 season goals and an average rating of 6.96

Francis Amuzu contributed 1 goal and 2 assists this season

Cristian Pavón has a season average rating of 7.12

Flamengo's Pedro is a key player with 8 season goals and 3 assists, holding a rating of 7.38

Samuel Lino recorded 2 goals and 5 assists for the season performance

Gonzalo Plata contributed 2 season goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 7.13

门将

Grêmio's goalkeeper Weverton recorded 5 clean sheets this season

His form trend is rising with a last average rating of 7.47

Flamengo's goalkeeper Agustín Rossi also achieved 5 clean sheets

He also shows a rising form trend with a last average rating of 7.43

影响因素

Grêmio shows a very strong defense at home, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per game

Flamengo has a strong away offense, scoring an average of 1.86 goals per game

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