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Serie A

Mirassol - Chapecoense

05/10/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Mirassol
2.0
Total xG
2.9
Chapecoense
0.9
最可能的比分

2:0

11%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
xG 分解
MIRCHA

Mirassol

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.63
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.04
20%进球产出缺失 (仅66%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.2球)

Chapecoense

防守不足 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+1.06
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.41倍)
-0.59
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.36
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.08
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.08
28%进球产出缺失 (仅76%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体1.1球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

63%

平局

23%

客胜

14%

进球数

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

双重机会

主胜或平局

86%

客胜或平局

37%

非平局

77%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Mirassol with a probability of 63%
  • Chapecoense conceded an average of 4.5 goals per away game this season
  • Mirassol has achieved 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games, while Chapecoense shows weaker form with 1 draw and 4 losses
风险因素
  • For Mirassol, only 67% of the usual goal production is available due to absences
  • Chapecoense recorded an average of only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述

Mirassol (18th place, 12 points) host Chapecoense (20th place, 8 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 10:30 PM. Both teams are in the relegation zone and are fighting for crucial points at the bottom of the table.

近期状态

Mirassol's current form across all competitions is LLWLW, which corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses. Chapecoense shows a form of DLLLL with 1 draw and 4 losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

统计数据

Mirassol scored an average of 1.15 goals per game this season and conceded 1.46 goals. At home, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded. Mirassol had 0 clean sheets this season. Both teams scored in 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 games. Chapecoense scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 2.0 goals. Away from home, their defense is particularly weak, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per game. Chapecoense achieved 1 clean sheet, and in 8 games both teams scored. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches.

历史交锋

No data is available for previous head-to-head encounters between Mirassol and Chapecoense.

关键球员

For Mirassol, Alesson stands out with 4 season assists (2 in the last 5 games and a rating of 6.96), and Carlos Eduardo with 1 season goal and 1 assist, also scoring 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.08. André Luis contributed 1 season goal and also scored once in his last 5 appearances, with a rating of 6.74. For Chapecoense, Yannick Bolasie and Ênio are important attacking players, each with 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games. Bolasie also has 1 season assist and Ênio has a rating of 7.46 in the last 5 games. Marcinho scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 5 appearances.

门将

For Mirassol, Walter is in goal, with 0 clean sheets in 13 appearances. For Chapecoense, Anderson has played 2 games and kept 0 clean sheets. Chapecoense recorded a total of 1 clean sheet this season.

影响因素

Mirassol scored an average of 1.12 goals at home and conceded 1.25 goals. Chapecoense's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, allowing an average of 4.5 goals per game.

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