🇧🇷

Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo

05/10/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Atlético Mineiro
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Botafogo
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
AMBOT

Atlético Mineiro

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.67倍)
-0.70
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.33
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.12
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.06
Victor Hugo未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Hulk 未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
Natanael替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Reinier替补席 (1球, 1助攻)

Botafogo

防守实力 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.89
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.08
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍)
-0.06
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.01
Vitinho未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.9球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

37%

平局

32%

客胜

31%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

69%

客胜或平局

63%

非平局

68%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Atlético Mineiro's goal production has stalled recently (1.0 goals per game), while their season average is 1.2 goals
  • Botafogo is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals per game) than their season average (1.9 goals)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a rather balanced match outcome with a 37% home win, 32% draw, and 31% away win
风险因素
  • Botafogo concedes an average of 2.14 goals per away game
  • The pipeline analysis calculates only a 39% probability for over 2.5 goals, suggesting a potentially low-scoring game
  • The prediction is very tight, with a home win probability of 37% and an away win of 31%
概述

Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 17 points) host Botafogo (12th place, 17 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams are level on points in the mid-table

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Atlético Mineiro's last five games show a WLLLW form (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)

Their last result was a 3-1 away win against Cruzeiro

This was preceded by three consecutive losses

Botafogo's last five games show a WDWDL form (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Their last match ended in a 1-2 home loss against Remo

统计数据

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.21 goals per game and concedes 1.43 goals

Botafogo is stronger offensively with 1.92 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game

For Atlético Mineiro, 5 games ended with both teams scoring and 7 games had over 2.5 goals

Botafogo saw both teams score in 10 games and over 2.5 goals in 12 games

Atlético Mineiro averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded at home

Botafogo averages 1.86 goals scored and 2.14 goals conceded away

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Atlético Mineiro recorded 1 win, Botafogo 2 wins, and 1 draw

Botafogo scored 4 goals and conceded 1 goal

The last direct encounter on September 20, 2025, was a 1-0 away win for Botafogo

Botafogo has been dominant in recent matchups

关键球员

Atlético Mineiro:

Tomás Cuello (Attacker) registered 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.21

Mateo Cassierra (Attacker) scored 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 4 games with a rating of 6.94

Renan Lodi (Defender) provided 1 assist in the last 5 games and achieved a rating of 6.98

Additionally, Victor Hugo (3 goals, 1 assist), Hulk (1 goal, 3 assists), Natanael (0 goals, 2 assists), and Reinier (1 goal, 1 assist) are not nominated

Botafogo:

Matheus Martins (Attacker) scored 3 goals in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.45

Danilo (Midfielder) recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.39

Edenilson (Midfielder) contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.96

Additionally, Vitinho (0 goals, 2 assists) is not nominated

门将

Everson of Atlético Mineiro made 14 appearances and kept 3 clean sheets

Neto of Botafogo played 6 matches and recorded 1 clean sheet

影响因素

Atlético Mineiro scores 1.29 goals and concedes 1.43 goals at home

Botafogo scores 1.86 goals and concedes 2.14 goals away

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。