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Serie A

Fluminense - Vitória

05/09/2026, 09:00 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Fluminense
1.9
Total xG
2.6
Vitória
0.8
最可能的比分

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
FLUVIT

Fluminense

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.34
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.26
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.07
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第9位, 相差6位)
+0.05
Agustín Canobbio替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Rodrigo Castillo替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Hércules替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Guga替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Vitória

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.53倍)
-0.61
防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.41
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.33
状态上升 (2 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.20
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.08
排名劣势 (第9位 vs 第3位, 相差6位)
-0.05
Erick未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
Matheuzinho未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
11%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

62%

平局

24%

客胜

13%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

87%

客胜或平局

38%

非平局

76%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • Fluminense is the clear favorite with a 62% win probability according to mathematical analysis
  • Vitória concedes an average of 5.0 goals per away game
  • Fluminense has shown possession dominance (64% possession) and averaged 6.2 shots on target in the last 5 games
风险因素
  • Vitória is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.3)
  • Fluminense's goal production has recently stalled (1.4 goals per game)
概述

Fluminense (3rd place, 26 points) host Vitória (9th place, 18 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 9, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Fluminense aims to solidify its position in the top group, while Vitória will try to climb the table

近期状态

Fluminense's form (all competitions): DLWWL. This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from the last 5 games. Vitória shows the form DWDLW with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 games. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Fluminense scores an average of 1.64 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per game. At home, they score 1.62 and concede 0.88 goals. Vitória scores an average of 1.23 goals and concedes 1.38 goals. Away, Vitória concedes an average of 5.0 goals and scores 1.33 goals. Fluminense has 3 clean sheets, Vitória 5. For Fluminense, 10 games ended with 'Both teams scored', for Vitória 6. Fluminense had 8 Over 2.5 games, Vitória 5

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, there was 1 home win, 2 away wins, and 1 draw. Fluminense scored 3 goals, Vitória scored 4 goals. The last encounter was won by Vitória on September 20, 2025, with a score of 1:0. Vitória has been more dominant in recent direct encounters

关键球员

For Fluminense, John Kennedy (6 goals, 0 assists), Luciano Acosta (3 goals, 3 assists) and Jefferson Savarino (3 goals, 2 assists) are important players. John Kennedy showed stable form in the last 5 games with 2 goals. Luciano Acosta had 0 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games. Jefferson Savarino is in rising form with 3 goals in the last 5 games. For Vitória, Baralhas  (2 goals, 3 assists), Renê (2 goals, 1 assist) and Renato Kayzer (2 goals, 0 assists) are notable. Baralhas  showed stable form in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist. Renê is also in stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Renato Kayzer showed stable form but had no goals or assists in 3 games

门将

Fluminense's goalkeeper Fábio kept 3 clean sheets this season. Vitória's goalkeeper Lucas Arcanjo achieved 5 clean sheets this season

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