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Serie A

Corinthians - São Paulo

05/10/2026, 09:30 PM

3 : 2
预期进球
Corinthians
0.9
Total xG
1.8
São Paulo
1.0
最可能的比分

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

0:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:2

8%
xG 分解
CORSP

Corinthians

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.49倍)
-0.92
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.37
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.37
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.15
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第4位, 相差13位)
-0.13
状态下滑 (0.7 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.07
30%进球产出缺失 (仅70%可用)

São Paulo

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.29
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.18
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.07
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第17位, 相差13位)
+0.06
Wendell替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

29%

平局

36%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

71%

非平局

64%

双方进球

38%

62%

关键因素
  • São Paulo's offensive strength: The team is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 1.6 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.4 goals).
  • Corinthians' low goal production: Their goal production is stalling (Avg. 0.7 goals), with a season average of Avg. 0.9 goals.
  • High draw probability: Mathematical analysis indicates a draw as the most likely outcome with 36%.
风险因素
  • Corinthians averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches.
  • São Paulo concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game.
  • Corinthians scores only an average of 0.71 home goals per game.
概述

Corinthians (17th place, 15 points) hosts São Paulo (4th place, 24 points) in a Serie A derby. The match is on May 10, 2026, 10:30 PM. Corinthians is battling relegation, while São Paulo aims for a top spot.

近期状态

Corinthians' last five matches show a form of LDDWL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their last game was a 1:2 loss against Mirassol. São Paulo, on the other hand, has a form of WLLWD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). São Paulo's last match ended in a 2:2 draw against Bahia.

统计数据

Corinthians has scored an average of 0.71 goals per game this season and conceded 0.93 goals. At home, they scored 0.71 goals per game and conceded 0.86. São Paulo averages 1.36 goals per game and conceded 0.93 goals. Away from home, São Paulo scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 2.0. Corinthians achieved 6 clean sheets, while São Paulo managed 4. For Corinthians, both teams scored in 6 games, and 3 games had over 2.5 goals. For São Paulo, both teams scored in 7 games, and 5 games had over 2.5 goals.

历史交锋

In four previous head-to-head encounters, Corinthians secured one victory, while São Paulo won two matches and one ended in a draw. The goal difference is 6:8 in favor of São Paulo. The last time these teams met, Corinthians won 3:1 on November 20, 2025.

关键球员

For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro is a key midfielder with 1 goal and 4 assists, boasting an average rating of 7.14. Matheus Bidu (2 goals, 1 assist, rating 7.01) and Gabriel Paulista (1 goal, 0 assists, rating 7.02) are also notable. For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri  stands out with 6 goals and 1 assist (rating 6.94), Luciano with 4 goals and 1 assist (rating 7.1), and Ferreirinha with 4 goals (rating 7.13).

门将

Corinthians' goalkeeper Hugo Souza featured in 12 appearances, with the team achieving 6 clean sheets. São Paulo's goalkeeper Rafael played in 14 appearances, and the team recorded 4 clean sheets.

影响因素

Corinthians scored an average of 0.71 goals at home and conceded 0.86. São Paulo scored an average of 1.5 goals away and conceded 2.0.

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