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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Athletico PR

05/10/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Vasco da Gama
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Athletico PR
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
VDGAP

Vasco da Gama

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.30
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第5位, 相差9位)
-0.12
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.07
Cuiabano未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
David替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Cauan Barros未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
Paulo Henrique未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
31%进球产出缺失 (仅69%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.4球)

Athletico PR

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.66倍)
-0.31
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.19
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.10
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第14位, 相差9位)
+0.04
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.04
Kevin Viveros未进大名单 (8球, 1助攻)
Gastón Benavídez未进大名单 (0球, 4助攻)
Lucas Esquivel未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
Dudu替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
57%进球产出缺失 (仅36%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

37%

平局

33%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

63%

非平局

67%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • Only 37% of Athletico PR's usual goal threat is available, missing key players like Kevin Viveros (8 goals/1 assist), Gastón Benavídez (0 goals/4 assists), Lucas Esquivel (1 goal/3 assists), and Dudu (1 goal/1 assist)
  • Vasco da Gama averages 1.38 goals per game at home, while Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 37% probability for a Vasco da Gama home win and a 33% probability for a draw
风险因素
  • Only 69% of Vasco da Gama's usual starting lineup strength is available, missing key players like Cuiabano (2 goals/3 assists), David (2 goals/2 assists), Cauan Barros (3 goals/0 assists), and Paulo Henrique (0 goals/2 assists)
  • Vasco da Gama's current goal production is stagnating, with an average of 1.2 goals recently compared to the season average of 1.4 goals
概述

Vasco da Gama (14th place, 17 points) host Athletico PR (5th place, 23 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 11, 2026, 12:30 AM

Athletico PR is in a Europa-Cup spot, while Vasco da Gama is fighting against relegation

近期状态

Vasco da Gama has a form of L-D-W-L-D across all competitions (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches

The last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Flamengo

Athletico PR shows a form of L-W-L-W-D across all competitions

This includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games

The last match ended in a 0-0 draw against Grêmio

Vasco da Gama's goal production is stagnating (averaging 1.2 goals), while the season average is 1.4 goals

Athletico PR consistently scores (averaging 1.5 goals per game)

统计数据

Vasco da Gama has scored an average of 1.43 goals per game this season and conceded 1.5 goals

The team has kept 0 clean sheets

In home games, Vasco da Gama scored an average of 1.38 goals and conceded 1.12 goals

Athletico PR has scored an average of 1.43 goals per game this season and conceded 1.07 goals

Athletico PR has kept 4 clean sheets

In away games, Athletico PR scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 2.5 goals

Vasco da Gama has seen both teams score in 12 games and over 2.5 goals in 9 games

Athletico PR has seen both teams score in 7 games and over 2.5 goals in 7 games

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, the record is even

Both teams have secured one win each, with no draws

Vasco da Gama and Athletico PR have each scored 2 goals

Vasco da Gama won the last encounter 2-1 on August 27, 2024

关键球员

For Vasco da Gama, José Luis Rodríguez (2 goals, 3 assists) with rising form, Andrés Gómez (2 goals, 2 assists) with stable form, and Thiago Mendes (2 goals, 1 assist) with stable form are key players

For Athletico PR, Stiven Mendoza (4 goals, 0 assists) with stable form, Luiz Gustavo (2 goals, 0 assists) with declining form, and João Cruz (0 goals, 2 assists) with rising form are noteworthy

门将

Léo Jardim is the goalkeeper for Vasco da Gama and has 0 clean sheets this season

Santos is the goalkeeper for Athletico PR and has achieved 4 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Vasco da Gama scored an average of 1.38 goals and conceded 1.12 goals in home matches

Athletico PR scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 2.5 goals in away matches

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