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Serie A

Botafogo - Corinthians

05/17/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Botafogo
1.1
Total xG
1.9
Corinthians
0.8
最可能的比分

0:0

17%

1:0

15%

1:1

15%

2:0

10%

0:1

10%
xG 分解
BOTCOR

Botafogo

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.36
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.04
Danilo替补席 (7球, 2助攻)
Edenilson替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
Matheus Martins未进大名单 (4球, 0助攻)
Vitinho替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
51%进球产出缺失 (仅61%可用)

Corinthians

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.43倍)
-0.63
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.28
状态上升 (1.7 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
+0.18
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.14
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.02
23%进球产出缺失 (仅76%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.4球 vs 总体1.1球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

43%

平局

34%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

57%

非平局

66%

双方进球

38%

62%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 43% and a double chance of 77% for Botafogo or draw
  • Botafogo shows a strong home offense with an average of 2.0 goals per home game, while Corinthians averages 0.83 goals scored away and 1.17 goals conceded
  • Botafogo dominates head-to-head encounters with 2 wins and 2 draws in 4 matches
风险因素
  • Limited squad strength for Botafogo, as only 61% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, with Danilo (7G/2A), Edenilson (3G/2A), Matheus Martins (4G/0A), and Vitinho (0G/2A) not in the lineup
概述

Botafogo (14th place, 18 points) hosts Corinthians (16th place, 18 points) in a Serie A match. The game takes place on May 17, 2026, 8:00 PM. Both teams are close in the table and are striving to improve their standing.

近期状态

Botafogo's form across all competitions: DWDLD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). Botafogo recently drew 1-1 against Atlético Mineiro. Corinthians' form across all competitions: DDWLW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Corinthians recently won 3-2 against São Paulo. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

统计数据

Botafogo averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.93 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded. The team kept 1 clean sheet, both teams scored in 11 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 12 games. Corinthians averages 0.87 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game this season. Away, they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded. The team kept 6 clean sheets, both teams scored in 7 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 games.

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Botafogo secured 2 wins and 2 draws, while Corinthians recorded no wins. Botafogo scored a total of 6 goals, compared to Corinthians' 4 goals. The last encounter on November 30, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw. Botafogo has shown recent dominance in these matchups.

关键球员

For Botafogo, key players include Arthur Cabral (4 goals, 1 assist), Alex Telles  (2 goals, 2 assists), and Alexander Barboza (1 goal, 2 assists). Arthur Cabral shows stable form, while Alex Telles  and Alexander Barboza are in rising form. For Corinthians, Matheus Bidu (2 goals, 1 assist), Breno Bidon (2 goals), and Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 6 assists) are crucial. All three show a stable form trend.

门将

Botafogo's goalkeeper Neto made 7 season appearances with an average rating of 6.91 and recorded 1 clean sheet. Corinthians' goalkeeper Hugo Souza made 13 season appearances with an average rating of 6.82 and recorded 6 clean sheets.

影响因素

Botafogo showed a stronger offense in home games with an average of 2.0 goals scored and conceded 1.83 goals. Corinthians scored an average of 0.83 goals away and conceded 1.17 goals.

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